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Les scénarios sur l'énergie et le climat. L'avant et l'après-Copenhague

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Criqui

    (LEPII-EDDEN - équipe EDDEN - LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Constantin Ilasca

    (LEPII-EDDEN - équipe EDDEN - LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Les scénarios pour le développement énergétique à long terme et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre associées ont acquis un rôle particulier par rapport aux autres familles de scénarios. Dans le cas de l'énergie et du climat il s'agit de fournir une information essentielle pour la négociation internationale, dans l'identification des objectifs globaux communs comme dans celle de la déclinaison nationale de ces objectifs. Les scénarios sont donc un enjeu dans une négociation essentielle sur l'agenda des politiques internationales. Le papier décrit les développements des scénarios depuis la préparation du Quatrième rapport d'évaluation du GIEC. Il examine d'abord une série d'études développées par de grandes organisations internationales depuis 2007, puis présente un exercice de scénarisation avec des " scénarios bas carbone non mimétiques " c'est-à-dire incluant des changements dans les styles de développement. Dans cette revue des travaux il faut aussi prendre en compte le changement de perspective survenu depuis la conférence de Copenhague. Celle-ci marque à la fois l'arrivée au premier plan de la négociation des pays émergents et donc, pour un temps du moins, le passage d'une vision top-down de la construction des scénarios à partir des objectifs globaux, à une vision bottom-up, à partir des politiques nationales.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Criqui & Constantin Ilasca, 2011. "Les scénarios sur l'énergie et le climat. L'avant et l'après-Copenhague," Post-Print halshs-00582431, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00582431
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00582431v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2010. "The European energy sector and the climate-security nexus in the SECURE scenarios," Post-Print halshs-00544271, HAL.
    2. Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi, 2010. "Europe and the Euro," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ales08-1.
    3. Patrick Criqui & Constantin Ilasca, 2010. "Les engagements pris à Copenhague et la question de la comparabilité des efforts," Post-Print halshs-00511790, HAL.
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