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On assessing excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic
[Zur Berechnung der Übersterblichkeit in Deutschland während der COVID-19-Pandemie]

Author

Listed:
  • Giacomo De Nicola

    (Ludwig-Maximillians-Universität München)

  • Göran Kauermann

    (Ludwig-Maximillians-Universität München)

  • Michael Höhle

    (University of Stockholm)

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a very high number of casualties in the general population. Assessing the exact magnitude of this number is a non-trivial problem, as relying only on officially reported COVID-19 associated fatalities runs the risk of incurring in several kinds of biases. One of the ways to approach the issue is to compare overall mortality during the pandemic with expected mortality computed using the observed mortality figures of previous years. In this paper, we build on existing methodology and propose two ways to compute expected as well as excess mortality, namely at the weekly and at the yearly level. Particular focus is put on the role of age, which plays a central part in both COVID-19-associated and overall mortality. We illustrate our methods by making use of age-stratified mortality data from the years 2016 to 2020 in Germany to compute age group-specific excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomo De Nicola & Göran Kauermann & Michael Höhle, 2022. "On assessing excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic [Zur Berechnung der Übersterblichkeit in Deutschland während der COVID-19-Pandemie]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 5-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:astaws:v:16:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11943-021-00297-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11943-021-00297-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evelyn Kitagawa, 1964. "Standardized comparisons in population research," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 296-315, March.
    2. Jennifer Beam Dowd & Liliana Andriano & David M. Brazel & Valentina Rotondi & Per Block & Xuejie Ding & Yan Liu & Melinda C. Mills, 2020. "Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(18), pages 9696-9698, May.
    3. Andrew T. Levin & William P. Hanage & Nana Owusu-Boaitey & Kensington B. Cochran & Seamus P. Walsh & Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020. "Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 27597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Julien Riou & Anthony Hauser & Anna Fesser & Christian L. Althaus & Matthias Egger & Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, 2023. "Direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Switzerland," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Timo Schmid & Markus Zwick, 2022. "Vorwort der Herausgeber," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-4, March.
    3. Michael Höhle, 2022. "Comment “On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic” by Jahn et al," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 383-386, September.

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