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Estimating regional trade flows using commercial vehicle survey data

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  • Chris Bachmann
  • Chris Kennedy
  • Matthew Roorda

Abstract

This paper presents a new method for estimating regional trade flows using transportation survey data describing commodity origin–destination flows. Explicit attention is paid to the difference between commodity flows and trade flows that arises from the presence of transhipment points. Observed commodity flows in the transportation survey data are converted to production–consumption trade flows that are consistent with the multi-regional input–output framework. Regional trade flow estimates are then reconciled with regional production and consumption estimates using a mathematical program that aims to make minimal adjustments while imposing known multi-regional input–output accounting identities. It is shown that commodities originating or terminating at a transhipment point should be reassigned to their probable production origins or consumption destinations as long as an unbiased sample of previous observations is available. As the number of observations increases, the prediction error of the production origin or consumption destination decreases exponentially. A real-world case study in the Province of Ontario in Canada demonstrates the feasibility of estimating interregional trade flows from commercial vehicle survey data and shows that the estimated pattern of trade flows is maintained after adjustments are made to satisfy accounting constraints. Therefore, it is possible to create a balanced multi-regional input–output model based on a commercial vehicle survey and the limited supplementary data available at the regional level. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Bachmann & Chris Kennedy & Matthew Roorda, 2015. "Estimating regional trade flows using commercial vehicle survey data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(3), pages 855-876, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:54:y:2015:i:3:p:855-876
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-015-0689-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ana Lúcia Marto Sargento & Pedro Miguel Nogueira Ramos, 2003. "Estimating trade flows between Portuguese regions using an Input-output approach," ERSA conference papers ersa03p118, European Regional Science Association.
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    3. Lindall, Scott A. & Olson, Douglas C. & Alward, Gregory S., 2006. "Deriving Multi-Regional Models Using the IMPLAN National Trade Flows Model," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 36(1), pages 1-8.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C61; C67; D57; R15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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