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A disaggregate Box-Cox Logit mode choice model of intercity passenger travel in Germany and its implications for high-speed rail demand forecasts

  • Benedikt Mandel

    (Centre de recherche sur les transports, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, succursale A, Montréal, Canada H3C 3J7)

  • Marc Gaudry

    (Centre de recherche sur les transports, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, succursale A, Montréal, Canada H3C 3J7)

  • Werner Rothengatter

    (Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung der Universität Karlsruhe , Kollegium am Schloß, Bau IV, Postfach 6980, D-76128 Karlsruhe, Germany)

Registered author(s):

    We show that enriching logit mode choice model specification by mode attributes, socio economic variables and trip purpose characteristics significantly improves model quality, and that Box-Cox transformations applied to model attributes imply an asymmetry of the reaction curve, as well as more reasonable properties (diminishing marginal values of time savings, elasticities and values of time that differ among the modes) than those of the linear logit model. Moreover, the model yielded very different high speed rail market shares for Germany than results obtained with the usual linear utility functions.

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    Article provided by Springer in its journal The Annals of Regional Science.

    Volume (Year): 31 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 99-120

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:31:y:1997:i:2:p:99-120
    Note: Received: December 1996 / Accepted: April 1997
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