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Transport emissions, carbon taxes, and modal choice

Author

Listed:
  • Avetisyan, Misak
  • Wilson, Wesley W.

Abstract

Transportation is one of the major sources of anthropogenic emissions. Yet most environmental regulations target production emissions rather than transportation emissions. Within the transport sector, there are considerable differences in emissions intensities across modes. In this paper, we develop and estimate a multinomial logit model of consumer mode choices for non-local travel using the 2017 Household Travel Survey to consider the impacts of carbon taxes on mode choices and emissions. The model is specified as a function of trip cost, travel distance, and a variety of household characteristics. The estimates are then used to calculate the impacts of incremental carbon taxes from none to $150/tCO2 on both modal choices and emissions. We find that there are mode shifts to more fuel-efficient modes along with reductions in emissions as taxes increase. We also find almost linear relationship between carbon prices and abatement of non-local transport emissions with the largest reduction observed under $150/tCO2.

Suggested Citation

  • Avetisyan, Misak & Wilson, Wesley W., 2025. "Transport emissions, carbon taxes, and modal choice," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:110:y:2025:i:c:s0739885925000253
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101542
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multinomial logit model; Modal choice; Emissions intensity; Transport emissions; Carbon taxation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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