IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v347y2025i1d10.1007_s10479-023-05172-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The methodological problem of unit roots: stationarity and its consequences in the context of the Tinbergen debate

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Ali Nasir

    (University of Leeds)

  • Jamie Morgan

    (Leeds Beckett University)

Abstract

In this paper we highlight an important yet often neglected issue that arises within the context of the broader set of concerns set out in Keynes’s seminal critique of Tinbergen’s early work in econometrics and that is the problem of “trend” in the dataset. We use the example of conforming data to achieve stationarity to solve a problem of unit roots to highlight that Keynes concerns with the “logical issues” regarding the “conditions which the economic material must satisfy” still gains little attention in theory and practice. There is a lot more discussion of the technical aspects of method than there is reflection on conditions that must be satisfied when methods are applied. Concomitantly, there is a tendency to respond to problems of method by applying fixes rather than addressing the underlying problem. We illustrate various facets of the argument using central bank policy targeting and using examples of differencing, co-integration and Bayesian applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Ali Nasir & Jamie Morgan, 2025. "The methodological problem of unit roots: stationarity and its consequences in the context of the Tinbergen debate," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 347(1), pages 113-130, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:347:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-023-05172-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-023-05172-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-023-05172-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-023-05172-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brooks,Chris, 2008. "RATS Handbook to Accompany Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521896955, Enero-Abr.
    2. Lawson, Tony, 1989. "Realism and Instrumentalism in the Development of Econometrics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 236-258, January.
    3. John Marriott & Paul Newbold, 1998. "Bayesian Comparison of ARIMA and Stationary ARMA Models," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 66(3), pages 323-336, December.
    4. Francisco Louca, 1999. "The econometric challenge to Keynes: arguments and contradictions in the early debates about a late issue," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 404-438.
    5. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Jamie Morgan, 2018. "The unit root problem: Affinities between ergodicity and stationarity, its practical contradictions for central bank policy, and some consideration of alternatives," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 339-363, July.
    6. Sheila C. Dow & Victoria Chick, 2012. "The Meaning of Open Systems," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Foundations for New Economic Thinking, chapter 11, pages 178-196, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Stephen Pratten, 2005. "Economics as progress: the LSE approach to econometric modelling and critical realism as programmes for research," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 29(2), pages 179-205, March.
    8. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    9. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    10. Bradley Efron, 2015. "Frequentist accuracy of Bayesian estimates," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 77(3), pages 617-646, June.
    11. Donald W. Katzner, 2003. "Why mathematics in economics?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 561-574.
    12. Plosser, Charles I. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Estimation of a non-invertible moving average process : The case of overdifferencing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 199-224, September.
    13. Mizon, Grayham E., 1995. "A simple message for autocorrelation correctors: Don't," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 267-288, September.
    14. Perron, P, 1993. "Erratum [The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis]," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 248-249, January.
    15. Patinkin, Don, 1976. "Keynes and Econometrics: On the Interaction between the Macroeconomic Revolutions of the Interwar Period," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1091-1123, November.
    16. Julian Reiss, 2016. "Suppes’ probabilistic theory of causality and causal inference in economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 289-304, July.
    17. Garrone Giovanna & Marchionatti Roberto & Bellofiore Riccardo, 2004. "Keynes on econometric method. A reassessment of his debate with Tinbergen and econometricians, 1938-1943," CESMEP Working Papers 200401, University of Turin.
    18. Aris Spanos, 2015. "Revisiting Haavelmo's structural econometrics: bridging the gap between theory and data," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 171-196, June.
    19. Christ, Carl F, 1994. "The Cowles Commission's Contributions to Econometrics at Chicago, 1939-1955," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 30-59, March.
    20. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, September.
    21. Hendry,David F. & Morgan,Mary S., 1997. "The Foundations of Econometric Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588706, September.
    22. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    23. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    24. Bean, Charles R, 1983. "Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(372), pages 806-819, December.
    25. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
    26. Schotman, Peter C & van Dijk, Herman K, 1991. "On Bayesian Routes to Unit Roots," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 387-401, Oct.-Dec..
    27. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    28. repec:bla:econom:v:47:y:1980:i:188:p:387-406 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Steve Fleetwood, 2017. "The critical realist conception of open and closed systems," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 41-68, January.
    30. Robert Leeson, 1998. "“The Ghosts I Called I Can't Get Rid of Now†: The Keynes-Tinbergen-Friedman-Phillips Critique of Keynesian Macroeconometrics," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 51-94, Spring.
    31. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    32. Edward E. Leamer, 2010. "Tantalus on the Road to Asymptopia," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 31-46, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. Ventosa-Santaulària, 2009. "Spurious Regression," Journal of Probability and Statistics, Hindawi, vol. 2009, pages 1-27, August.
    2. Peter Hans Matthews, 2005. "Paradise lost and found? The econometric contributions of Clive W. J. Granger and Robert F. Engle," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28.
    3. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, April.
    4. A. Oznur Umit & H. Isil Alkan, 2016. "The Effects of Foreign Direct Investments and Economic Growth on Employment and Female Employment: A Time Series Analysis With Structural Breaks For Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 9(3), pages 43-49, December.
    5. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    6. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, September.
    7. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, December.
    8. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    9. Ali, Adnan & Faisal, Faisal & Zhakanova Isiksal, Aliya & Maktoumi, Iman Sulaiman Amur AL, 2025. "Do green finance and health expenditures lessen the ecological footprint to ensure sustainable development?," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    10. Rosa, Franco & Vasciaveo, Michela & Weaver, Robert D., 2014. "Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, August.
    11. Marriott, John & Newbold, Paul, 2000. "The strength of evidence for unit autoregressive roots and structural breaks: A Bayesian perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 1-25, September.
    12. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    13. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    14. Cumhur Şahin & Hüseyin Altay, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey's Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, February.
    15. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Dilem Yıldırım & Onur A. Koska, 2018. "Puzzling out the Feldstein-Horioka Paradox for Turkey by a Time-Varying Parameter Approach," ERC Working Papers 1808, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2018.
    17. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    18. Boetel, Brenda L. & Liu, Donald J., 2008. "Incorporating Structural Changes in Agricultural and Food Price Analysis: An Application to the U.S. Beef and Pork Sectors," Working Papers 44076, University of Minnesota, The Food Industry Center.
    19. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    20. Vicente German-Soto & Chapa Cantú, 2015. "Cointegration with structural changes between per capita product and income inequality in Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(49), pages 5215-5228, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • B16 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - Quantitative and Mathematical
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:347:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-023-05172-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.