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Międzynarodowa konkurencyjność polskich produktów mleczarskich w warunkach liberalizacji rynku mleka

Author

Listed:
  • Ewa Kiryluk-Dryjska
  • Agnieszka Baer-Nawrocka

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest ocena konkurencyjności wybranych polskich produktów mleczarskich na rynku międzynarodowym oraz jej prognoza dla roku 2020, przy założeniu dwóch wariantów: liberalizacji i braku liberalizacji na rynku mleka. Analizę konkurencyjności artykułów mleczarskich przeprowadzono w ujęciu ex-post (na podstawie danych z lat 2004-2010) oraz ex-ante (na podstawie prognozowanych wartości eksportu i importu na rok 2020). Prognozy przeprowadzono przy wykorzystaniu modelu równowagi cząstkowej CAPRI. W analizach konkurencyjności polskich produktów mleczarskich w handlu zagranicznym zastosowano mierniki zaproponowane przez Frohberga. Konkurencyjność produktów mleczarskich analizowano na tle prognozowanych wyników handlowych w UE. Relatywnie najwyższą konkurencyjność na rynku międzynarodowym spośród wszystkich analizowanych produktów mleczarskich wykazuje mleko w proszku. Z kolei najmniej konkurencyjnym produktem jest masło, w odniesieniu do którego w 2020 r. przewiduje się ujemne saldo handlu zagranicznego oraz pogorszenie się wskaźników konkurencyjności. Wyniki badań wskazują, że liberalizacja doprowadzi do pogorszenia konkurencyjności polskich artykułów mleczarskich na rynku międzynarodowym w porównaniu z sytuacją kiedy utrzymane byłoby status quo. Wskazują na to zarówno wartości salda handlu zagranicznego jak i wartości wskaźników konkurencyjności. W tym kontekście można powiedzieć, że wdrożenie propozycji Falkonera zakładającego liberalizację wpłynęłoby niekorzystnie na konkurencyjność polskich produktów mleczarskich na rynku międzynarodowym.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewa Kiryluk-Dryjska & Agnieszka Baer-Nawrocka, 2013. "Międzynarodowa konkurencyjność polskich produktów mleczarskich w warunkach liberalizacji rynku mleka," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 101-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2013:i:3:p:101-118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Langley, Suchada V. & Somwaru, Agapi & Normile, Mary Anne, 2006. "Trade Liberalization in International Dairy Markets: Estimated Impacts," Economic Research Report 7214, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    konkurencyjność; handel zagraniczny; rynek mleka; analiza symulacyjna;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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