IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ses/arsjes/2004-ii-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural Breaks and the Normality of Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Seungwook Bahng

Abstract

This paper attempts to explain the distribution of actual stock index returns using a mixture of the normal distributions model. This paper first defines the concept of structural breaks and derives a special form of structural breaks under the normality framework. It then applies the derived methodology to the monthly returns of the Swiss stock index to confirm whether the observed non-normality of stock returns can be explained with the derived model. Empirical results provide evidence that the entire period consists of three or four sub-periods in which different normal distributions exist. To check the statistical power of the model, this study generates random data from the normal distributions. Simulation results support the statistical power of the new methodology, and indicate the possibility that, despite being a seemingly non-normal test statistic for the entire data set, the underlying distribution is made up of a mixture of normal distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Seungwook Bahng, 2004. "Structural Breaks and the Normality of Stock Returns," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 140(II), pages 207-227, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2004-ii-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sjes.ch/papers/2004-II-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J, 1996. "Sequential Parameter Nonstationarity in Stock Market Returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 103-131, March.
    2. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
    3. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    4. Kodjovi G. Assoe, 1998. "Regime-Switching in Emerging Stock Market Returns," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 101-132, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. G. D. Gettinby & C. D. Sinclair & D. M. Power & R. A. Brown, 2004. "An Analysis of the Distribution of Extreme Share Returns in the UK from 1975 to 2000," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5‐6), pages 607-646, June.
    2. Kangrong Tan & Meifen Chu, 2012. "Estimation Of Portfolio Return And Value At Risk Using A Class Of Gaussian Mixture Distributions," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 6(1), pages 97-107.
    3. David Ashton & Mark Tippett, 2006. "Mean Reversion and the Distribution of United Kingdom Stock Index Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1586-1609, November.
    4. Eric Jondeau & Michael Rockinger, 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Allocation under Higher Moments," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(1), pages 29-55, January.
    5. J. Francisco Rubio & Neal Maroney & M. Kabir Hassan, 2018. "Can Efficiency of Returns Be Considered as a Pricing Factor?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 25-54, June.
    6. G. D. Gettinby & C. D. Sinclair & D. M. Power & R. A. Brown, 2004. "An Analysis of the Distribution of Extreme Share Returns in the UK from 1975 to 2000," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5-6), pages 607-646.
    7. Gulnur Muradoglu & Hakan Berument & Kivilcim Metin, 1999. "Financial Crisis and Changes in Determinants of Risk and Return: An Empirical Investigation of an Emerging Market (ISE)," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(4), pages 223-252, December.
    8. Chen Yi-Ting & Lin Chang-Ching, 2008. "On the Robustness of Symmetry Tests for Stock Returns," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-40, May.
    9. Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 306-316, August.
    10. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    11. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Realized volatility spillovers between energy and metal markets: a time-varying connectedness approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Elie Bouri & Georges Azzi, 2014. "On the Dynamic Transmission of Mean and Volatility across the Arab Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 13(3), pages 279-304, December.
    13. Eric Fur, 2023. "Risk and return of classic car market prices: passion or financial investment?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 59-68, February.
    14. Georgiev, Iliyan, 2010. "Model-based asymptotic inference on the effect of infrequent large shocks on cointegrated variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 37-50, September.
    15. Ericsson, Neil R., 2016. "Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
    16. Geluk, J.L. & De Vries, C.G., 2006. "Weighted sums of subexponential random variables and asymptotic dependence between returns on reinsurance equities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 39-56, February.
    17. Jin, Xiaoye, 2015. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions among the Greater China stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 43-58.
    18. Damian Jelito & Marcin Pitera, 2018. "New fat-tail normality test based on conditional second moments with applications to finance," Papers 1811.05464, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    19. Ilham Haouas & Naceur Kheraief & Arusha Cooray & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2019. "Time-Varying Casual Nexuses Between Remittances and Financial Development in Some MENA Countries," Working Papers 1294, Economic Research Forum, revised 2019.
    20. Lenten, Liam J.A. & Geerling, Wayne & Kónya, László, 2012. "A hedonic model of player wage determination from the Indian Premier League auction: Further evidence," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 60-71.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural Breaks; Mixture-of-Normals; Stock Return Distribution; Swiss Stock Market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2004-ii-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kurt Schmidheiny (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgvssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.