IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/vision/v27y2023i1p79-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Sentiments Impact the Returns of Commodity Derivatives? An Evidence from Multi-commodity Exchange India

Author

Listed:
  • Aneeta Elsa Simon
  • Manu K.S.

Abstract

The advancements in technology, increased accessibility to various modes and platforms of communication, and increased willingness on the part of participants to share their ideas/opinions has resulted in huge amounts of data on the World Wide Web, hence, easily available to impact decision-making. Furthermore, commodity prices are primarily driven by demand and supply, wherein such news is open to the cognitive thinking of individuals. Thus, using the principles of natural language processing, which combines concepts of linguistics, computer science and artificial intelligence, helps in improving the accuracy of price determination. Therefore, this article aims to examine the relationship between sentiments conveyed through various sources and the performance of India’s largest commodity market, multi-commodity exchange (MCX). The correlation and causation between sentiment scores extracted from such textual content and the daily returns of select commodity derivatives are analysed. The results show varying levels of significance of sentiments on the returns of commodity contracts and imply that there is an increased scope of using such unstructured content in the field of finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Aneeta Elsa Simon & Manu K.S., 2023. "Does Sentiments Impact the Returns of Commodity Derivatives? An Evidence from Multi-commodity Exchange India," Vision, , vol. 27(1), pages 79-92, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:vision:v:27:y:2023:i:1:p:79-92
    DOI: 10.1177/09722629211004002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09722629211004002
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09722629211004002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joel Peress, 2014. "The Media and the Diffusion of Information in Financial Markets: Evidence from Newspaper Strikes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2007-2043, October.
    2. Nina Gotthelf & Matthias W. Uhl, 2019. "News Sentiment: A New Yield Curve Factor," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 31-41, January.
    3. Gao, Zhenyu & Ren, Haohan & Zhang, Bohui, 2020. "Googling Investor Sentiment around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 549-580, March.
    4. Jiancheng Shen & Mohammad Najand & Feng Dong & Wu He, 2017. "News and social media emotions in the commodity market," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(2), pages 148-168, July.
    5. Haiqiang Chen & Terence Tai Leung Chong & Yingni She, 2014. "A principal component approach to measuring investor sentiment in China," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 573-579, April.
    6. Zachary McGurk & Adam Nowak & Joshua C. Hall, 2020. "Stock returns and investor sentiment: textual analysis and social media," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 458-485, July.
    7. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar‐Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    8. Xianfang Su & Yong Li, 2020. "Dynamic sentiment spillovers among crude oil, gold, and Bitcoin markets: Evidence from time and frequency domain analyses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Lily Fang & Joel Peress, 2009. "Media Coverage and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2023-2052, October.
    10. Rama Krishna Yelamanchili, 2019. "Impact of Consumer Sentiment on Defensive and Aggressive Stock Returns: Indian Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 109-114.
    11. Divya Aggarwal, 2017. "Exploring relation between Indian market sentiments and stock market returns," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(7), pages 147-159, July.
    12. Lorraine Rupande & Hilary Tinotenda Muguto & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2019. "Investor sentiment and stock return volatility: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1600233-160, January.
    13. Julien Chevallier & Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2014. "Commodity markets through the business cycle," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 1597-1618, September.
    14. Darren Duxbury, 2015. "Behavioral finance: insights from experiments II: biases, moods and emotions," Review of Behavioral Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 151-175, November.
    15. Isita Mukherjee & Bhaskar Goswami, 2017. "The volatility of returns from commodity futures: evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Kuo-Kun Tseng & Regina Fang-Ying Lin & Hongfu Zhou & Kevin Jati Kurniajaya & Qianyu Li, 2018. "Price prediction of e-commerce products through Internet sentiment analysis," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 65-88, March.
    17. Divya Aggarwal, 2017. "Exploring Relation between Indian Market Sentiments and Stock Market Returns," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(7), pages 147-159.
    18. Huosong Xia & Yitai Yang & Xiaoting Pan & Zuopeng Zhang & Wuyue An, 2020. "Sentiment analysis for online reviews using conditional random fields and support vector machines," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 343-360, June.
    19. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    20. Yanhui Chen & Hanhui Zhao & Ziyu Li & Jinrong Lu, 2020. "A dynamic analysis of the relationship between investor sentiment and stock market realized volatility: Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
    21. Doowon Ryu & Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2020. "Investor Sentiment, Market Competition, and Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(8), pages 1804-1816, June.
    22. Sheung Yin Kevin Mo & Anqi Liu & Steve Y. Yang, 2016. "News sentiment to market impact and its feedback effect," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 158-166, June.
    23. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2014. "Commodity Markets through the business cycle," Post-Print hal-01302479, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xu, Yongxin & Xuan, Yuhao & Zheng, Gaoping, 2021. "Internet searching and stock price crash risk: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 255-275.
    2. Ding, Rong & Hou, Wenxuan & Liu, Yue (Lucy) & Zhang, John Ziyang, 2018. "Media censorship and stock price: Evidence from the foreign share discount in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 112-133.
    3. Yang, Shuai & Wu, Chao, 2021. "Do Chinese managers listen to the media?: Evidence from mergers and acquisitions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Tsileponis, Nikolaos & Stathopoulos, Konstantinos & Walker, Martin, 2020. "Do corporate press releases drive media coverage?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(2).
    5. Liao, Rose & Wang, Xinjie & Wu, Ge, 2021. "The role of media in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Li, Yuanpeng & Shi, Haina & Zhou, Yi, 2021. "The influence of the media on government decisions: Evidence from IPOs in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Du, Hanyu & Hao, Jing & He, Feng & Xi, Wenze, 2022. "Media sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns in the Chinese stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Henry Hyun-Do Kim & Kwangwoo Park, 2021. "Impact of Environmental Disaster Movies on Corporate Environmental and Financial Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-35, January.
    9. Ruben Enikolopov & Maria Petrova & Konstantin Sonin, 2018. "Social Media and Corruption," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 150-174, January.
    10. Feipeng Zhang & Yun Hong & Yanhui Jiang & Jiayi Yu, 2022. "Impact of national media reporting concerning COVID-19 on stock market in China: empirical evidence from a quantile regression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(33), pages 3861-3881, July.
    11. Chau, Michael & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2020. "Wisdom of crowds before the 2007–2009 global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    12. Buehlmaier, Matthias M. M. & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Financial media, price discovery, and merger arbitrage," CFS Working Paper Series 551, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Dang, Tung Lam & Dang, Man & Hoang, Luong & Nguyen, Lily & Phan, Hoang Long, 2020. "Media coverage and stock price synchronicity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Yang, Shanxiang & Liu, Zhechen & Wang, Xinjie, 2020. "News sentiment, credit spreads, and information asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2022. "Cross-border portfolio flows and news media coverage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Liu, Sha & Han, Jingguang, 2020. "Media tone and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Li, Yi & Zhang, Wei & Urquhart, Andrew & Wang, Pengfei, 2022. "The role of media coverage in the bubble formation: Evidence from the Bitcoin market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Brandt, Michael W. & Gao, Lin, 2019. "Macro fundamentals or geopolitical events? A textual analysis of news events for crude oil," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 64-94.
    19. Mohammad Alomari & Abdel Razzaq Al rababa’a & Ghaith El-Nader & Ahmad Alkhataybeh, 2021. "Who’s behind the wheel? The role of social and media news in driving the stock–bond correlation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 959-1007, October.
    20. Jacobs, Heiko, 2020. "Hype or help? Journalists’ perceptions of mispriced stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 550-565.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:vision:v:27:y:2023:i:1:p:79-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.