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Forecasting Overseas Visitors to the UK Using Continuous Time and Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average Models with Discrete Data

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  • K.B. Nowman
  • S. Van Dellen

Abstract

This paper applies Gaussian estimation methods to continuous time models for modelling overseas visitors into the UK. The use of continuous time modelling is widely used in economics and finance but not in tourism forecasting. Using monthly data for 1986–2010, various continuous time models are estimated and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. Dynamic forecasts are obtained over different periods. The empirical results show that the ARIMA model performs very well, but that the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) continuous time model has the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) over a short period.

Suggested Citation

  • K.B. Nowman & S. Van Dellen, 2012. "Forecasting Overseas Visitors to the UK Using Continuous Time and Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average Models with Discrete Data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 18(4), pages 835-844, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:18:y:2012:i:4:p:835-844
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2012.0144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luis A Gil-Alana & James E Payne, 2022. "Persistence, seasonality, and fractional integration within a nonlinear framework: Evidence from US citizens’ overseas travel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 654-660, May.
    2. Luis A Gil-Alana & à gueda Gil-López & Elena San Román, 2021. "Tourism persistence in Spain: National versus international visitors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 614-625, June.
    3. Liang Zhu & Christine Lim & Wenjun Xie & Yuan Wu, 2017. "Analysis of tourism demand serial dependence structure for forecasting," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(7), pages 1419-1436, November.
    4. Eden Xiaoying Jiao & Jason Li Chen, 2019. "Tourism forecasting: A review of methodological developments over the last decade," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 469-492, May.
    5. James E Payne & Junsoo Lee, 2024. "Global perspective on the permanent or transitory nature of shocks to tourist arrivals: Evidence from new unit root tests with structural breaks and factors," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(1), pages 67-103, February.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2019. "UK overseas visitors: Seasonality and persistence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(5), pages 827-831, August.

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