IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/soueco/v6y2005i2p221-239.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Twin Deficits Problem in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Salman Saleh
  • Mahendhiran Nair
  • Tikiri Agalewatte

    (Address for first (corresponding author) and second author: School of Business, Monash University Malaysia, No. 2, Jalan Kolej, Bandar Sunway, 46150 Petaling Jaya, Selangor Malaysia, Phone: +603 56360600 Ext. 3330, Fax: +60358804358. E–mails: saleh.asalman@buseco.monash.edu.my and Mahendhiran.Nair@buseco.monash.edu.my; for third author: School of Economics and Information Systems, University of Wollongong. E–mail: tba01@uow.edu.au)

Abstract

Many economists have argued that prolonged fiscal expansions contribute to current account imbalances. The purpose of this paper is to explore this phenomenon in the case of Sri Lanka during the period 1970 to 2003. In this study, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test for cointegration (Pesaran et al. 2001) were used to assess the long-run dynamics between the twin deficits in Sri Lanka. The empirical analysis in this paper supports the Keynesian view that there is a long-run relationship between current account imbalances and budget deficit. The empirical results also show that the direction of causality runs from the budget deficit to the current account deficit. Thus, any policy measures to reduce the budget deficit in Sri Lanka could well assist in reducing the current account imbalances. Strategies and policies to manage the twin-deficits are discussed in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Salman Saleh & Mahendhiran Nair & Tikiri Agalewatte, 2005. "The Twin Deficits Problem in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 6(2), pages 221-239, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:6:y:2005:i:2:p:221-239
    DOI: 10.1177/139156140500600204
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/139156140500600204
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/139156140500600204?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
    4. Cardia, Emanuela, 1997. "Replicating Ricardian Equivalence Tests with Simulated Series," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 65-79, March.
    5. Festus Egwaikhide, 1999. "Effects of Budget Deficit on Trade Balance in Nigeria: A Simulation Exercise," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 11(2), pages 265-289.
    6. Ahmed M. Khalid & Teo Wee Guan, 1999. "Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: Cross-country comparisons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 389-402.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    2. Mossadak Anas, PhD researcher, 2013. "Twin deficits in Morocco: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 3(7), pages 160-172, July.
    3. Nurgun Topalli & İbrahim Dogan, 2016. "The structure and sustainability of current account deficit: Turkish evidence from regime switching," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 570-589, June.
    4. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    5. Farzane Bagheri & Salma Keshtkaran, 2012. "Testing for Twin Deficits and Ricardian Equivalence Hypotheses: Evidence from Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 3(3), pages 77-84.
    6. Murshed, Muntasir & Nijhum, Nawrin Khan, 2019. "The Fiscal and Current Account Imbalances: An Empirical analysis of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Bangladesh," MPRA Paper 97115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dushni Weerakoon & Utsav Kumar & Roselle Dime, 2019. "Sri Lanka’s Macroeconomic Challenges: A Tale of Two Deficits," Working Papers id:13022, eSocialSciences.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Salman Saleh, 2006. "Long-Run Linkage Between Budget Deficit And Trade Deficit In Lebanon: Results From The Uecm And Bounds Tests," IIUM Journal of Economics and Management, IIUM Journal of Economis and Management, vol. 14(1), pages 29-48, December.
    2. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    3. Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Price Level in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 468-477, December.
    4. Saima Sarwar, 2015. "Revisiting Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH) For Pakistan Using Money Demand Function Approach," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 154-166.
    5. Ahmad Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Ahmed Khalid, 2006. "Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis using VARs and Variance Decomposition," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 331-354.
    6. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Consumption and Current Account in the European Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1330-1344.
    7. Amjad Ali & Marc Audi, 2018. "Macroeconomic Environment and Taxes Revenues in Pakistan: An Application of ARDL Approach," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(1), pages 30-39, March.
    8. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    9. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    10. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    11. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    12. E Lau & S Abu Mansor & C-H Puah, 2010. "Revival of the Twin Deficits in Asian Crisis-affected Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 15(1), pages 29-54, March.
    13. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    14. Ranjan Kumar Mohanty, 2019. "An Empirical Investigation of Twin Deficits Hypothesis: Evidence from India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(3), pages 579-601, September.
    15. Artatrana Ratha, 2012. "Twin Deficits or Distant Cousins? Evidence from India1," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 13(1), pages 51-68, March.
    16. Bruce Morley, 2009. "A Comparison of Two Alternative Monetary Approaches to Exchange Rate Determination over the Long-Run," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 1(2), pages 63-76, April.
    17. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    18. Md.Yousuf & Raju Ahmed & Nasrin Akther Lubna & Shah Md. Sumon, 2019. "Estimating the Services Sector Impact on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: An Econometric Investigation," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 62-72, June.
    19. Nisamudheen, P.P. & Shareef, K. Hassan, 2025. "The role of human capital in driving renewable energy and sustainable development in India," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    20. Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:6:y:2005:i:2:p:221-239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ips.lk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.