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A Note on Rainfall Variability and Trends in Nigeria: Implications for Agricultural Production

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  • Kolawole Ogundari
  • Adebola Abimbola Ademuwagun
  • Ogechukwu Appah

Abstract

The climatic change crisis has led to a renewed interest in understanding the dynamic of climatic variability over time. This is because rainfall variability in response to climate change poses a severe threat to global food security and agricultural production in general. As a result of this, the study investigates the convergence of rainfall variability in Nigeria. We use historical climate data on annual rainfall collected from meteorological stations across 12 states and covering 1992–2013. This gives rise to a balanced panel data of 12 states and 20 periods, which yields 240 observations. The study used a sigma convergence hypothesis test estimated using ordinary least square, fixed-effect and feasible generalized least square models. The coefficient of variation is taken as a measure of rainfall variability in the study. The results showed a negative (declining) linear correlation between rainfall’s coefficient of variation and data year. This means that rainfall variability decreased over time. This indicates evidence of convergence of rainfall, which means states with lower average annual rainfall are catching up on states with higher average annual rainfall over time. And, from the agricultural production standpoint, this result shows that the potential threat of rainfall variability to food security is not severe. In addition, it indicates a decrease in risk and uncertainty in food crop production associated with rainfall variability. JEL Classifications: O13, O55, Q10, Q54

Suggested Citation

  • Kolawole Ogundari & Adebola Abimbola Ademuwagun & Ogechukwu Appah, 2023. "A Note on Rainfall Variability and Trends in Nigeria: Implications for Agricultural Production," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 11(2), pages 184-194, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:miceco:v:11:y:2023:i:2:p:184-194
    DOI: 10.1177/23210222211051472
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1771-1855, November.
    2. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-1036, July.
    3. Amare, Mulubrhan & Jensen, Nathaniel D. & Shiferaw, Bekele & Cissé, Jennifer Denno, 2018. "Rainfall shocks and agricultural productivity: Implication for rural household consumption," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 79-89.
    4. Wimalasuriya, Rukman & Ha, Arthur & Tsafack, Esther & Larson, Kristoffer, 2008. "Rainfall Variability and its Impact on Dryland Cropping in Victoria," 2008 Conference (52nd), February 5-8, 2008, Canberra, Australia 6000, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    5. Olayide, Olawale Emmanuel & Tetteh, Isaac Kow & Popoola, Labode, 2016. "Differential impacts of rainfall and irrigation on agricultural production in Nigeria: Any lessons for climate-smart agriculture?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 30-36.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate variability; rainfall; agriculture; convergence; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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