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Does Terrorism Influence Domestic Politics? Coalition Formation and Terrorist Incidents

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  • Indridi H. Indridason

    (Department of Politics & International Relations, University of Oxford, Department of Political Science, University of Iceland, indridi.indridason@politics.ox.ac.uk)

Abstract

Terrorism has been shown to influence domestic politics, for example, by altering the priorities of voters and politicians. This article argues that terrorism has broader political consequences than simply putting national security on the political agenda. In particular, it argues that terrorist activity influences government formation. A number of scholars have noted that the presence of an external threat provides an incentive to overcome internal disagreements, suggesting that larger and more inclusive coalitions should form. Terrorist activity may also influence government survival, as voters hold politicians accountable for failing to provide security. Politicians, in anticipation of terrorist activity, may, therefore, seek to form a more stable coalition. The literature on government survival suggests that the size of the coalition positively affects its durability but that its ideological breadth is expected to have an adverse effect on survival, which is the opposite of the prediction of the theory based on external threat. To test whether terrorism influences coalition formation, the author analyzes coalition formation in 17 (primarily Western European) parliamentary democracies over a 50-year period using data on domestic and transnational terrorism from, respectively, the TWEED dataset and the Terrorism Knowledge Base. The results show that government coalitions are more likely to be surplus coalitions and, consistent with the theory emphasizing government survival, more likely to have a low degree of ideological polarization in periods following terrorist activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Indridi H. Indridason, 2008. "Does Terrorism Influence Domestic Politics? Coalition Formation and Terrorist Incidents," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(2), pages 241-259, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:45:y:2008:i:2:p:241-259
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    Cited by:

    1. Hillel Frisch, 2015. "Choosing the Right Strategy: Why the Palestinians Were More Successful in the First Intifada than in the Second?," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 2(3), pages 176-191, September.
    2. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    4. Asongu, Simplice A. & Nwachukwu, Jacinta C., 2017. "The Impact of Terrorism on Governance in African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 253-270.
    5. Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "Terrorism in the Worlds of Welfare Capitalism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(6), pages 902-939, December.
    6. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu & Sara le Roux, 2019. "The role of inclusive development and military expenditure in modulating the effect of terrorism on governance," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(3), pages 681-709, August.
    7. Friedrich Schneider & Raul Caruso, 2011. "The (Hidden) Financial Flows of Terrorist and Transnational Crime Organizations: A Literature Review and Some Preliminary Empirical Results," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 52, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Tiberiu Dragu, 2017. "On repression and its effectiveness," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 29(4), pages 599-622, October.
    9. Schneider, Friedrich, 2010. "The (Hidden) Financial Flows of Terrorist and Organized Crime Organizations: A Literature Review and Some Preliminary Empirical Results," IZA Discussion Papers 4860, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Morales, Juan S., 2021. "Legislating during war: Conflict and politics in Colombia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. Friedrich Schneider, 2009. "Die Finanzströme von organisierter Kriminalität und Terrorismus: was wissen wir (nicht)?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(4), pages 73-87.

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