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Oil Crops and Social Conflict: Evidence From Indonesia

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  • Donald Grasse

Abstract

When do agricultural transformations impact social stability? Cash crops are typically associated with economic prosperity and social peace. I argue agricultural booms may spur violent conflict over resource allocation by pitting would-be producers against incumbent landowners when the gains from production are concentrated and the negative externalities are diffuse. I study the rapid expansion of oil palm in Indonesia, a growingly important crop in the global economy. I find when oil palm grows more valuable and expands within producing districts, violent resource conflicts increase. The positive relationship does not exist for other cash crops, nor other types of conflict, and is moderated by the presence of sustainability certified processing mills. The results connect commodity shocks to non-state violence over resources, and suggest land use change is an important mechanism connecting agricultural booms to social conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald Grasse, 2022. "Oil Crops and Social Conflict: Evidence From Indonesia," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(7-8), pages 1422-1448, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:7-8:p:1422-1448
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221084826
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull, 2020. "Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications," NBER Working Papers 27845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nora Dudwick & Radhika Srinivasan, 2013. "Creating Jobs in Africa's Fragile States : Are Value Chains an Answer?," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 15807, April.
    3. Andrew Shaver & David B. Carter & Tsering Wangyal Shawa, 2019. "Terrain ruggedness and land cover: Improved data for most research designs," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(2), pages 191-218, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Edwards, Ryan B., 2026. "Export agriculture and rural poverty: Evidence from Indonesian palm oil," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    2. Sahide, Muhammad Alif K., 2025. "A heuristic typology of mediator-centered power in land use conflicts: An actor centered analysis for developing countries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Justin V Hastings & David Ubilava, 2025. "Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(6), pages 1714-1732, November.
    4. David Ubilava, 2026. "Climate, crops, and postharvest conflict," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 108(1), pages 3-27, January.

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