IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/jocore/v21y1977i2p235-266.html

Evaluating Alternative Foreign Policy Decision-Making Models

Author

Listed:
  • Charles W. Ostrom Jr.

    (Department of Political Science Michigan State University)

Abstract

The focus of this study is the policy-making process which has as its principal output the annual U.S. defense expenditure total. A Richardson-type arms race model and a Davis, Dempster, and Wildavsky-type organizational politics model have been identified as contending but not mutually exclusive models of this process. Underlying each model is the assertion that a series of inputs is translated in a specified manner into the U.S. defense expenditure total. A systematic empirical evaluation is undertaken to determine the ability of the models to forecast by using each of them to generate a series of historical and ex post forecasts of the U.S. defense expenditure time series from 1954 to 1973. Tests are made in order to determine which model generates the more accurate forecasts and whether these forecasts are adequate. The results of the empirical test indicate that the forecasts of the two models are indistinguishable both from one another and from a naive model. Several reasons are given for these results, and the paper closes with suggestions for further research.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles W. Ostrom Jr., 1977. "Evaluating Alternative Foreign Policy Decision-Making Models," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(2), pages 235-266, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:21:y:1977:i:2:p:235-266
    DOI: 10.1177/002200277702100203
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/002200277702100203
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/002200277702100203?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cup:apsrev:v:68:y:1974:i:03:p:1221-1228_10 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:cup:apsrev:v:60:y:1966:i:03:p:529-547_13 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:cup:apsrev:v:67:y:1973:i:03:p:951-963_14 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Habibagahi, Hamid & Pratschke, John L, 1972. "A Comparison of the Power of the von Neumann Ratio, Durbin-Watson and Geary Tests," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(2), pages 179-185, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Nash Parker, 1980. "Correlation In Time Series Regression," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 9(1), pages 99-114, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:21:y:1977:i:2:p:235-266. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://pss.la.psu.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.