IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envirb/v42y2015i1p58-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bursts and Avalanches: The Dynamics of Polycentric Urban Evolution

Author

Listed:
  • Dani Broitman

    (ComplexCity Research Laboratory, Faculty of Architecture and Town Planning, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, Haifa 32000, Israel)

  • Daniel Czamanski

    (ComplexCity Research Laboratory, Faculty of Architecture and Town Planning, Technion—Israel Institute of Technology, Technion City, Haifa 32000, Israel)

Abstract

Urban construction activities are subject to periods of fast expansion followed by periods of slow growth. Some of these expansions are limited in size, while others are huge. Therefore, it is not surprising that equilibrium-oriented classical models of urban spatial structure are hard pressed to explain the formation of modern cities with polycentric structure and births of subcenters in particular. To understand the development of cities' spatial patterns we present a model of urban spatial dynamics that is driven by two types of real-estate entrepreneurs that differ in their degree of risk aversion. The developers act in the shadow of the city planning board that formulates urban development policy and defines the boundaries of future residential expansions. The model's salient feature is the time lag between the time of purchase of property rights by land developers and the time of the realization of revenues. We assume that this lag varies in space, being much larger in locations that are not zoned for building. It can be reduced by the planning board in cases of high demand for dwellings. We use the model to demonstrate how the interaction between demand for dwellings, the choices taken by each type of developer, and planning policies leads to the creation of new urban subcenters. The model dynamics are characterized by long out-of-equilibrium periods followed by sudden bursts of construction activity that resembles self-organized criticality.

Suggested Citation

  • Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2015. "Bursts and Avalanches: The Dynamics of Polycentric Urban Evolution," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 42(1), pages 58-75, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:42:y:2015:i:1:p:58-75
    DOI: 10.1068/b39040
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/b39040
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1068/b39040?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caruso, Geoffrey & Peeters, Dominique & Cavailhes, Jean & Rounsevell, Mark, 2007. "Spatial configurations in a periurban city. A cellular automata-based microeconomic model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 542-567, September.
    2. R White & G Engelen, 1993. "Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(8), pages 1175-1199, August.
    3. Arno Vlist & Daniel Czamanski & Henk Folmer, 2011. "Immigration and urban housing market dynamics: the case of Haifa," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(3), pages 585-598, December.
    4. Hilber, Christian A.L. & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2013. "On the origins of land use regulations: Theory and evidence from US metro areas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 29-43.
    5. Anas, Alex & Kim, Ikki, 1996. "General Equilibrium Models of Polycentric Urban Land Use with Endogenous Congestion and Job Agglomeration," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 232-256, September.
    6. Elena G. Irwin, 2002. "Interacting agents, spatial externalities and the evolution of residential land use patterns," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 31-54, January.
    7. Lucien Benguigui & Daniel Czamanski & Maria Marinov & Yuval Portugali, 2000. "When and Where is a City Fractal?," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 27(4), pages 507-519, August.
    8. Lucien Benguigui & Daniel Czamanski & Rafael Roth, 2008. "Modeling Cities in 3D: A Cellular Automaton Approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 35(3), pages 413-430, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nataliya Rybnikova & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2023. "Initial signs of post-covid-19 physical structures of cities in Israel," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Czamanski, Daniel & Broitman, Dani, 2017. "Information and communication technology and the spatial evolution of mature cities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 30-38.
    3. Dani Broitman, 2020. "The Game of Developers and Planners: Ecosystem Services as a (Hidden) Regulation through Planning Delay Times," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Agung Wahyudi & Yan Liu & Jonathan Corcoran, 2021. "Simulating the impact of developers’ capital possession on urban development across a megacity: An agent-based approach," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 48(2), pages 376-391, February.
    5. Cats, Oded & Birch, Nigel, 2021. "Multi-modal network evolution in polycentric regions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Tianren Yang & Ying Jin & Longxu Yan & Pei Pei, 2019. "Aspirations and realities of polycentric development: Insights from multi-source data into the emerging urban form of Shanghai," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 46(7), pages 1264-1280, September.
    7. Erez Buda & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2021. "Urban Structure in Troubled Times: The Evolution of Principal and Secondary Core/Periphery Gaps through the Prism of Residential Land Values," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-12, May.
    8. Erez Buda & Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2023. "Land value dynamics and the spatial evolution of cities following COVID 19 using big data analytics," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 70(2), pages 429-445, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caruso, Geoffrey & Peeters, Dominique & Cavailhes, Jean & Rounsevell, Mark, 2007. "Spatial configurations in a periurban city. A cellular automata-based microeconomic model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 542-567, September.
    2. Rahma FITRIANI & Eni SUMARMININGSIH, 2015. "Determination Of Spatial Extent Of Land Use In The Fringe Of Jakarta Metropolitan: A Semivariogram Analysis," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 10(1), pages 43-54, February.
    3. Qingxu Huang & Dawn C Parker & Tatiana Filatova & Shipeng Sun, 2014. "A Review of Urban Residential Choice Models Using Agent-Based Modeling," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 41(4), pages 661-689, August.
    4. Yanguang Chen & Yixing Zhou, 2003. "The Rank-Size Rule and Fractal Hierarchies of Cities: Mathematical Models and Empirical Analyses," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 30(6), pages 799-818, December.
    5. Lewis, David J. & Barham, Bradford L. & Zimmerer, Karl S., 2008. "Spatial Externalities in Agriculture: Empirical Analysis, Statistical Identification, and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1813-1829, October.
    6. Yanguang Chen & Jiejing Wang, 2013. "Multifractal Characterization of Urban Form and Growth: The Case of Beijing," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 40(5), pages 884-904, October.
    7. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91, February.
    8. Jian Feng & Yanguang Chen, 2021. "Modeling Urban Growth and Socio-Spatial Dynamics of Hangzhou, China: 1964–2010," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, January.
    9. Bosch, Martí & Chenal, Jérôme & Joost, Stéphane, 2019. "Addressing urban sprawl from the complexity sciences," MPRA Paper 93489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chen, Yanguang, 2009. "Analogies between urban hierarchies and river networks: Fractals, symmetry, and self-organized criticality," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1766-1778.
    11. Chen, Yanguang & Zhou, Yixing, 2008. "Scaling laws and indications of self-organized criticality in urban systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 85-98.
    12. Huan Lu & Ruiyang Wang & Rong Ye & Jinzhao Fan, 2023. "Monitoring Long-Term Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Urban Expansion Using Multisource Remote Sensing Images and Historical Maps: A Case Study of Hangzhou, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
    13. Chen, Yanguang, 2013. "Fractal analytical approach of urban form based on spatial correlation function," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-60.
    14. Czamanski, Daniel & Broitman, Dani, 2017. "Information and communication technology and the spatial evolution of mature cities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 30-38.
    15. Chen, Yanguang & Lin, Jingyi, 2009. "Modeling the self-affine structure and optimization conditions of city systems using the idea from fractals," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 615-629.
    16. Boeing, Geoff, 2017. "Methods and Measures for Analyzing Complex Street Networks and Urban Form," SocArXiv 93h82, Center for Open Science.
    17. Magliocca, Nicholas & McConnell, Virginia & Walls, Margaret, 2015. "Exploring sprawl: Results from an economic agent-based model of land and housing markets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 114-125.
    18. Daniel Czamanski & Rafael Roth, 2011. "Characteristic time, developers’ behavior and leapfrogging dynamics of high-rise buildings," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 46(1), pages 101-118, February.
    19. Isabelle Thomas & Pierre Frankhauser & Dominique Badariotti, 2012. "Comparing the fractality of European urban neighbourhoods: do national contexts matter?," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 189-208, April.
    20. Marco Criado & Antonio Martínez-Graña & Fernando Santos-Francés & Sergio Veleda & Caridad Zazo, 2017. "Multi-Criteria Analyses of Urban Planning for City Expansion: A Case Study of Zamora, Spain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-18, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envirb:v:42:y:2015:i:1:p:58-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.