IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v25y2004i1p45-62.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of OPEC Conference Outcomes on World Oil Prices 1984-2001

Author

Listed:
  • Franz Wirl
  • Azra Kujundzic

Abstract

This paper investigates how far OPEC influences world oil markets. We ask the question: What is the impact of the decisions of the OPEC Conference, the supreme authority of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, on world oil prices? Extracting the Conference’s decisions from the communiques of fifty meetings from 1984-2001, these decisions were compared with the subsequent market developments. The result is that this impact is weak at best, and if at all then restricted to meetings recommending a price increase. However, the opposite claim (found in the literature) - the Conference is simply following the market - was also not supported either. Another interesting observation is the little autocorrelation between the decisions of the Conference. This suggests that the ministers’ decisions accommodate quickly and efficiently recent events.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Wirl & Azra Kujundzic, 2004. "The Impact of OPEC Conference Outcomes on World Oil Prices 1984-2001," The Energy Journal, , vol. 25(1), pages 45-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:25:y:2004:i:1:p:45-62
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No1-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No1-3
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No1-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dermot Gately, 2001. "How Plausible is the Consensus Projection of Oil Below $25 and Persian Gulf Oil Capacity and Output Doubling by 2020?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-28.
    2. Tang, Linghui & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2002. "An empirical exploration of the world oil price under the target zone model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 577-596, November.
    3. Suranovic, Steven M., 1993. "Does a target-capacity utilization rule fulfill OPEC's economic objectives?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 71-79, April.
    4. Franz Wirl, 1988. "Volatile Oil Prices: Two Propositions from Economics and “Realpolitik”," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 91-94, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Almutairi, Hossa & Pierru, Axel & Smith, James L., 2024. "Managing the oil market under misinformation: A reasonable quest?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wirl, Franz, 2008. "Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1029-1043, March.
    2. Wirl, Franz, 2015. "Output adjusting cartels facing dynamic, convex demand under uncertainty: The case of OPEC," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 307-316.
    3. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 250-269, April.
    4. Naser, Hanan, 2016. "Estimating and forecasting the real prices of crude oil: A data rich model using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 75-87.
    5. Chevillon, Guillaume & Rifflart, Christine, 2009. "Physical market determinants of the price of crude oil and the market premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 537-549, July.
    6. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Chen, Wei-Peng & Choudhry, Taufiq & Wu, Chih-Chiang, 2013. "The extreme value in crude oil and US dollar markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 191-210.
    8. Dermot Gately, 2004. "OPEC's Incentives for Faster Output Growth," The Energy Journal, , vol. 25(2), pages 75-96, April.
    9. Bharati, Rakesh & Crain, Susan J. & Kaminski, Vincent, 2012. "Clustering in crude oil prices and the target pricing zone hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1115-1123.
    10. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2008. "Sudden changes in volatility in emerging markets: The case of Gulf Arab stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 47-63.
    11. Dermot Gately, 2007. "What Oil Export Levels Should We Expect From OPEC?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 28(2), pages 151-174, April.
    12. Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2014. "Nonlinearity, Volatility and Fractional Integration in Daily Oil Prices: Smooth Transition Autoregressive ST-FI(AP)GARCH Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 108-135, October.
    13. Abdollahi, Hooman & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2020. "A new hybrid model for forecasting Brent crude oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Bradley T. Ewing & Shawkat M. Hammoudeh & Mark A. Thompson, 2006. "Examining Asymmetric Behavior in US Petroleum Futures and Spot Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 27(3), pages 9-24, July.
    15. Wirl, Franz, 2008. "Energy conservation, expectations and uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1957-1972, July.
    16. Gately, Dermot & Al-Yousef, Nourah & Al-Sheikh, Hamad M.H., 2013. "The rapid growth of OPEC′s domestic oil consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 844-859.
    17. Kaushik Ranjan Bandyopadhyay, 2022. "Oil and Gas Markets and COVID-19: A Critical Rumination on Drivers, Triggers, and Volatility," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    18. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2005. "The smooth transition autoregressive target zone model with the Gaussian stochastic volatility and TGARCH error terms with applications," Working Papers 0505, VCU School of Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Edward Hunter Christie & Joseph F. Francois & Waltraut Urban & Franz Wirl, 2010. "China's foreign oil policy: genesis, deployment and selected effects," FIW Research Reports series II-003, FIW.
    20. Greene, David L & Jones, Donald W & Leiby, Paul N, 1998. "The outlook for US oil dependence," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 55-69, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:25:y:2004:i:1:p:45-62. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.