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Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives

Author

Listed:
  • Jonathan Koomey
  • Paul Craig
  • Ashok Gadgil
  • David Lorenzetti

Abstract

One of the most striking things about forecasters is their lack of historical perspective. They rarely do retrospectives, even though looking back at past work can both illuminate the reasons for its success or failure, and improve the methodologies of current and future forecasts. One of the best and most famous retrospectives is that by Hans Landsberg, which investigates work conducted by Landsberg, Sam Schurr, and others. In this article, written mainly for model users, we highlight Landsberg’s retrospective as a uniquely valuable contribution to improving forecasting methodologies. We also encourage model users to support such retrospectives more frequently. Finally, we give the current generation of analysts the kind of guidance we believe Landsberg and Sam Schurr would have offered about how to do retrospectives well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan Koomey & Paul Craig & Ashok Gadgil & David Lorenzetti, 2003. "Improving Long-Range Energy Modeling: A Plea for Historical Retrospectives," The Energy Journal, , vol. 24(4), pages 75-92, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:24:y:2003:i:4:p:75-92
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No4-4
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    3. Stephen J. DeCanio, 2003. "Economic Models of Climate Change," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-50946-7, October.
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