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Modeling the Cost of Climate Policy: Distinguishing Between Alternative Cost Definitions and Long-Run Cost Dynamics

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  • Mark Jaccard
  • John Nyboer
  • Chris Bataille
  • Bryn Sadownik

Abstract

Interest groups and experts debate the cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, and policy-makers do not know whom to believe. The confusion stems from differing definitions of costs and divergent assumptions about key uncertainties, especially the role of policy in influencing the long-run evolution of technologies and consumer preferences. Analysis could be more helpful to policy-makers by combining technological explicitness with behavioral realism in hybrid models. With such a model, we demonstrate how GHG reduction cost estimates vary depending on whether the analyst focuses just on the financial costs of technologies or combines this with other relevant components of consumer and business preferences, such as option value and consumers’ surplus. We also show how this type of model can allow policy-makers to explore the uncertain relationship between policies and the evolution of technologies and preferences, which are critical factors in the long-run cost dynamics of GHG emission reduction. We explore these generic methodological issues with a case study of GHG reduction costs in Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Jaccard & John Nyboer & Chris Bataille & Bryn Sadownik, 2003. "Modeling the Cost of Climate Policy: Distinguishing Between Alternative Cost Definitions and Long-Run Cost Dynamics," The Energy Journal, , vol. 24(1), pages 49-73, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:24:y:2003:i:1:p:49-73
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No1-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 1998. "Sensitivity of climate change mitigation estimates to assumptions about technical change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 473-493, December.
    2. Koopmans, Carl C. & te Velde, Dirk Willem, 2001. "Bridging the energy efficiency gap: using bottom-up information in a top-down energy demand model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 57-75, January.
    3. Jaccard, Mark & Loulou, Richard & Kanudia, Amit & Nyboer, John & Bailie, Alison & Labriet, Maryse, 2003. "Methodological contrasts in costing greenhouse gas abatement policies: Optimization and simulation modeling of micro-economic effects in Canada," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 148-164, February.
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