IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/eeupol/v24y2023i3p494-515.html

EU-sentiment predicts the 2016 Dutch referendum vote on the EU’s association with Ukraine better than concerns about Russia or national discontent

Author

Listed:
  • Koen Abts
  • Tom Etienne
  • Yordan Kutiyski
  • André Krouwel

Abstract

This article utilises large-N panel data to compare two theories of referendum voting behaviour in order to understand the ‘for’ or ‘against’ vote in the 2016 Dutch referendum on the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. It studies the extent to which voting behaviour was predicted by Eurosceptic attitudes and fear of upsetting Russia (issue-based theory), versus dissatisfaction with the Dutch government and general political discontent (second-order theory). Our findings indicate that issue-based determinants predict the referendum vote better than second-order predictors. However, Eurosceptic attitudes and government satisfaction both outperform concerns about the relationship with Russia as a predictor. We thus provide evidence that the issue-based and second-order approaches to explain voting in EU referendums are complementary, but not equal in explanatory strength.

Suggested Citation

  • Koen Abts & Tom Etienne & Yordan Kutiyski & André Krouwel, 2023. "EU-sentiment predicts the 2016 Dutch referendum vote on the EU’s association with Ukraine better than concerns about Russia or national discontent," European Union Politics, , vol. 24(3), pages 494-515, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:24:y:2023:i:3:p:494-515
    DOI: 10.1177/14651165231157612
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/14651165231157612
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/14651165231157612?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hobolt, Sara B. & Spoon, Jae-Jae & Tilley, James, 2009. "A Vote Against Europe? Explaining Defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 93-115, January.
    2. Hooghe, Liesbet & Marks, Gary, 2009. "A Postfunctionalist Theory of European Integration: From Permissive Consensus to Constraining Dissensus," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 1-23, January.
    3. Clarke, Harold D. & Kornberg, Allan & Stewart, Marianne C., 2004. "Referendum Voting as Political Choice: The Case of Quebec," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 345-355, April.
    4. Chase Foster & Jeffry Frieden, 2021. "Economic determinants of public support for European integration, 1995–2018," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(2), pages 266-292, June.
    5. Caroline Mcevoy, 2016. "The Role of Political Efficacy on Public Opinion in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 1159-1174, September.
    6. Eichenberg, Richard C. & Dalton, Russell J., 1993. "Europeans and the European Community: the dynamics of public support for European integration," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 507-534, October.
    7. Koen Abts & Stefan Rummens, 2007. "Populism versus Democracy," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 55, pages 405-424, June.
    8. Koen Abts & Stefan Rummens, 2007. "Populism versus Democracy," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 55(2), pages 405-424, June.
    9. MARK FRANKLIN & MICHAEL MARSH & LAUREN McLAREN, 1994. "Uncorking the Bottle: Popular Opposition to European Unification in the Wake of Maastricht," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 455-472, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caroline Mcevoy, 2016. "The Role of Political Efficacy on Public Opinion in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 1159-1174, September.
    2. John Curtice, 2017. "Why Leave Won the UK's EU Referendum," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55, pages 19-37, September.
    3. Julian Aichholzer & Sylvia Kritzinger & Carolina Plescia, 2021. "National identity profiles and support for the European Union," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(2), pages 293-315, June.
    4. Krause, Werner & Giebler, Heiko, 2020. "Shifting Welfare Policy Positions: The Impact of Radical Right Populist Party Success Beyond Migration Politics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 331-348.
    5. Soetkin Verhaegen & Marc Hooghe & Ellen Quintelier, 2014. "European Identity and Support for European Integration: A Matter of Perceived Economic Benefits?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 295-314, May.
    6. Mikko Mattila & Tapio Raunio, 2026. "Still Out of Touch? Parties and Their Voters on the EU Dimension," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 14.
    7. Reinhard Heinisch & Oscar Gracia & Andrés Laguna-Tapia & Claudia Muriel, 2024. "Libertarian Populism? Making Sense of Javier Milei’s Political Discourse," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-27, November.
    8. Natalia Bogado & Evelyn Bytzek & Melanie C Steffens, 2023. "The use of identity-related frames in electoral pledges and its effects on Euroscepticism in France and Germany," European Union Politics, , vol. 24(3), pages 516-538, September.
    9. Ecker-Ehrhardt, Matthias, 2013. "Why do they want the UN to decide? A two-step model of public support for UN authority," TranState Working Papers 171, University of Bremen, Collaborative Research Center 597: Transformations of the State.
    10. Nicolás Cachanosky & Alexandre Padilla, 2020. "A panel data analysis of Latin American populism," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 329-343, September.
    11. Kim, Seongcheol, 2022. "Von Lefort zu Mouffe. Populismus als Moment und Grenze radikaler Demokratie [From Lefort to Mouffe: Populism as moment and limit of radical democracy]," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 767-786.
    12. Carlos Jalali & Patrícia Silva & Patrício Costa & Filipe Falcão, 2025. "Which cues matter: The effect of content cues on European Union support," European Union Politics, , vol. 26(4), pages 736-758, December.
    13. Sofia Rebelo & Manuel João Cruz & Cristiano Gianolla & Luciana Sotero & Lisete Mónico, 2025. "Discriminated and Violent? The Social Representations of Minorities in the Rise of Radical Right Populist Parties in Portugal and Italy," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-22, March.
    14. Noah Carl & James Dennison & Geoffrey Evans, 2019. "European but not European enough: An explanation for Brexit," European Union Politics, , vol. 20(2), pages 282-304, June.
    15. Dimiter Toshkov, 2011. "Public opinion and policy output in the European Union: A lost relationship," European Union Politics, , vol. 12(2), pages 169-191, June.
    16. Maurits Meijers & Christian Rauh, 2016. "Has Eurosceptic Mobilization Become More Contagious? Comparing the 2009 and 2014 EP Election Campaigns in The Netherlands and France," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 83-103.
    17. repec:osf:osfxxx:typvk_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ming-Lun Chung & Eric M. P. Chiu & Yu Hang KWOK & Ka-wo Fung, 2025. "To bond or bridge: how do populist attitudes intensify the effect of online social capital on political engagement?," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, December.
    19. Netjes, Catherine E. & Edwards, Erica, 2005. "Taking Europe to its extremes: Examining cueing effects of right-wing populist parties on public opinion regarding European integration," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Democracy and Democratization SP IV 2005-202, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    20. Patrick Clasen, 2024. "Solidarity on a divided continent: Perceptions of ‘centre’ and ‘periphery’ determine European citizens’ willingness to help other EU countries," European Union Politics, , vol. 25(3), pages 569-592, September.
    21. Manuel Hensmans, 2021. "Exploring the dark and bright sides of Internet democracy: Ethos-reversing and ethos-renewing digital transformation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/321232, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:eeupol:v:24:y:2023:i:3:p:494-515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.