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Local Environment Analysis and Rules Inferring Procedure in an Agent-Based Model – Applications in Economics

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  • Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu

    () (CISE, NIER, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

The use of agent-based modeling in economics is a step forward enabling a more realistic description of the complex interactions and behaviors occurring in the economic environment. Although it offers increased realism, especially in describing how local characteristics generate global patterns, it suffers from a simplistic approach to modeling local behaviors and rules. From this perspective the paper suggests possible solutions in two directions. First, the paper uses neural networks as an instrument for the agents to scan their local environment and infer possible behaviors. Second, the paper defines and applies an algorithm enabling the agents to understand a subset of rules that are not defined at the beginning of the application. The goal is to see how it is possible to generate new rules with structure and semantics. This would constitute “real” learning, namely defining new rules but not only quantitative variations of the initial rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Dospinescu, Andrei Silviu, 2012. "Local Environment Analysis and Rules Inferring Procedure in an Agent-Based Model – Applications in Economics," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 128-143, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2012:i:1:p:128-143
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Thurner & J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Leverage causes fat tails and clustered volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 695-707, February.
    2. Charles C. Willow, 2005. "A Neural Network-Based Agent Framework for Mail Server Management," International Journal of Intelligent Information Technologies (IJIIT), IGI Global, vol. 1(4), pages 36-52, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agent-based modeling; neural networks; complex rules; algorithms;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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