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An Analysis Of Domestic And External Shocks On Romanian Economy Using A Dsge Model

Author

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  • Caraiani, Petre

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

Abstract

In this paper, I study the impact of the domestic and external shocks on the Romanian economy. I use an open economy DSGE model and estimate it for the Romanian economy using Bayesian techniques. The impact of the domestic shocks is moderate but not persistent. The Euro Area demand and interest rate shocks have a moderate impact on the domestic output. The Euro Area supply and interest rate shocks have significant and persistent impacts on the domestic inflation. I also perform a long-run variance decomposition of the domestic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Caraiani, Petre, 2008. "An Analysis Of Domestic And External Shocks On Romanian Economy Using A Dsge Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 100-114, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:5:y:2008:i:3:p:100-114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Umut UNAL, 2015. "Rethinking The Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Disaggregated Svar Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 120-135, September.
    2. Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "A global macro model for emerging Europe," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 706-726.
    3. Petre Caraiani, 2009. "An Estimation of Output Gap in Romanian Economy Using the DSGE Approach," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(4), pages 366-379.
    4. Alina BOBAŞU & Bogdan MURARAȘU, 2021. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions in a DSGE Model for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-21, June.
    5. Valeriu Nalban, 2015. "A small New Keynesian model to analyze business cycle dynamics in Poland and Romania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 9(3), September.
    6. Iulian Vasile Popescu, 2014. "The impact of the recent global crisis on the prioritization of central banks final objectives. A structural approach in the context of Central and Eastern European states," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 7(2), pages 51-76, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; small open economy; Romania; Euro Area; monetary policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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