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Retiro de estímulos monetarios en EE.UU. y la simulación de algunos efectos sobre las economías de Latinoamérica

Author

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  • Cerezo Aguirre, Sergio

    (Sociedad de Economistas de Bolivia (SEBOL).)

Abstract

La incertidumbre respecto al futuro de las políticas fiscal y monetaria en EE.UU. ha perturbado el comportamiento de los mercados financieros y cambiarios internacionales. Luego de diversos anuncios, en 2014 la Reserva Federal estadounidense decidió iniciar el retiro gradual de sus estímulos monetarios, surgiendo voces de alerta sobre la supuesta fragilidad de América Latina. En esa línea, el presente documento examina y simula para un grupo de economías de la región (Brasil, Chile, Colombia y Perú), a partir de la calibración de un Modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico, la ocurrencia de los siguientes eventos: a) endurecimiento en las condiciones de financiamiento/tasas de interés internacionales más altas y b) mayor demanda externa. De las simulaciones se puede deducir, en forma general, que una eventual recuperación de la economía de EE.UU. puede generar una caída en la brecha del producto, acompañada de menores presiones inflacionarias, dado un incremento en la tasa de interés internacional. Sin embargo, una mayor demanda externa, producto de mencionada recuperación, generaría en la región un incremento de la brecha del producto y presiones inflacionarias. El efecto final sobre el producto e inflación dependerá de cuál de los dos efectos es más importante y sobre la capacidad de reacción y fundamentos de cada economía.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerezo Aguirre, Sergio, 2016. "Retiro de estímulos monetarios en EE.UU. y la simulación de algunos efectos sobre las economías de Latinoamérica," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 25, pages 171-200, Mayo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:1937
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 2005. "International dimensions of optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 281-305, March.
    2. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Perspectivas macroeconómicas; política monetaria; modelos de equilibrio general dinámico estocástico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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