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Estimating expected loss given default in an emerging market: the case of Czech Republic

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This article discusses the estimation of a key credit risk parameter – loss given default (LGD) – and calculates it for selected companies traded on the Prague Stock Exchange. The importance of estimating LGD stems from the fact that a lender‟s expected loss is the product of the probability of default, the credit exposure at the time of default, and the LGD. The Mertonian structural approach is used for LGD estimation. This technique makes it possible to derive LGD for publicly traded companies based on their debt and share prices. Our results indicate that the LGD has increased substantially during the current financial crisis, but not exceeding the levels reached over a decade ago, when the Czech Republic experienced rather unfavorable economic conditions. Next, we put forward that our resulting LGD calculated for main companies traded on the Prague Stock Exchange represents a lower estimate of this parameter for the entire corporate sector. This suggests that credit risk management strategies for the corporate sector should be more conservative than what our estimates imply.

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  • Seidler, Jakub & Horvath, Roman & Jakubík, Petr, 2009. "Estimating expected loss given default in an emerging market: the case of Czech Republic," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 27, pages 103-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:1390
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    1. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
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    3. Dvorak, Tomas & Podpiera, Richard, 2006. "European Union enlargement and equity markets in accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 129-146, June.
    4. Brian L. Betker, 1997. "The Administrative Costs of Debt Restructurings: Some Recent Evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), Winter.
    5. Edward I. Altman & Brooks Brady & Andrea Resti & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "The Link between Default and Recovery Rates: Theory, Empirical Evidence, and Implications," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 2203-2228, November.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    7. Egert, Balazs & Kocenda, Evzen, 2007. "Interdependence between Eastern and Western European stock markets: Evidence from intraday data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 184-203, June.
    8. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky, January.
    2. Jan Babecky & Philip Du Caju & Kamil Dybczak & Kamil Galuscak & Mary Keeney & Theodora Kosma & Martina Lawless & Julian Messina & Daphne Nicolitsas & Tairi Room & Frank Smets & Pawel Strzelecki & Mati, 2010. "CNB Economic Research Bulletin: Wage Adjustment in Europe," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 8, number rb08/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak, January.
    3. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky, January.
    4. Jiri Witzany, 2013. "Estimating Default and Recovery Rate Correlations," Working Papers IES 2013/03, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2013.
    5. Konstantin Belyaev & Aelita Belyaeva & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Martin Vojtek, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors as Drivers of LGD Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2012/12, Czech National Bank.
    6. repec:czx:journl:v:21:y:2014:i:33:id:210 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; loss given default; Prague Stock Exchange;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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