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Implied Market Loss Given Default in the Czech Republic: Structural-Model Approach

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Abstract

This paper focuses on the key credit risk parameter – Loss Given Default (LGD). We describe its general properties and determinants with respect to seniority of debt, characteristics of debtors and macroeconomic conditions. Furthermore, we illustrate how the LGD can be extracted from market observable information with help of the adjusted Mertonian structural approach. We present a derivation of the formula for the expected LGD and show its sensitivity with respect to other structural company parameters. Finally, we estimate the 5-year expected LGDs for companies listed on the Prague Stock Exchange and find that the average LGD for this analyzed sample is in the range of 20–45 %. To the authors’ knowledge, these are the first implied market estimates of LGD in the Czech Republic.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Seidler & Petr Jakubík, 2009. "Implied Market Loss Given Default in the Czech Republic: Structural-Model Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(1), pages 20-40, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:59:y:2009:i:1:p:20-40
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Radovan Chalupka & Juraj Kopecsni, 2009. "Modeling Bank Loan LGD of Corporate and SME Segments: A Case Study," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(4), pages 360-382, Oktober.
    2. Gregor Andrade & Steven N. Kaplan, 1998. "How Costly is Financial (Not Economic) Distress? Evidence from Highly Leveraged Transactions that Became Distressed," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1443-1493, October.
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    6. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    7. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    8. Jakub Seidler, 2008. "Implied Market Loss Given Default: structural-model approach," Working Papers IES 2008/26, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2008.
    9. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    10. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Radovan Chalupka & Juraj Kopecsni, 2009. "Modeling Bank Loan LGD of Corporate and SME Segments: A Case Study," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(4), pages 360-382, Oktober.
    2. Diego Valderrama & Katheryn N. Russ, "undated". "A Theory of Banks, Bonds, and the Distribution of Firm Size," Working Papers 915, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    3. Katerina Arnostova & Jozef Barunik & Jan Filacek & Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Roman Horvath & Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova & Lubos Ruzicka & Branislav Saxa & Katerina Smidkova & Peter Toth, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Methods, Accuracy and Coordination," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 10, number rb10/1 edited by Jan Babecky.
    4. J. Baixauli & Susana Alvarez, 2012. "Implied Severity Density Estimation: An Extended Semiparametric Method to Compute Credit Value at Risk," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(2), pages 115-129, August.
    5. Jaromir Baxa & Jiri Bohm & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Petr Kral & Magdalena Morgese Borys & Filip Rozsypal & Branislav Saxa & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Central Bank," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 1, volume 9, number rb09/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Roman Horvath.
    6. Petr Jakubik & Jakub Seidler, 2009. "Estimating Expected Loss Given Default," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2008/2009, chapter 0, pages 102-109 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    7. Jan Babecky & Alena Bicakova & Alexis Derviz & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Jakub Mateju & Ke Pang & Renata Pasalicova & Zuzana Prelcova & Marie Rakova & Pierre, 2011. "Macro-Financial Linkages: Theory and Applications," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, edition 2, volume 9, number rb09/2 edited by Jan Babecky.
    8. Russ, Katheryn N. & Valderrama, Diego, 2012. "A theory of bank versus bond finance and intra-industry reallocation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 652-673.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    loss given default; credit risk; structural models;

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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