Inflation and Uncertainty: Does the EMS Participation Play Any Role?
This paper examines whether European Monetary System (EMS) member - ship has affected the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty. ARCH measures of conditional inflation volatility and Granger-causality tests for nine OECD countries over the period 1980-1994 indicate that in non-EMS coun - tries -in these countries a monetary target seems to have been closely followedinflation seems to determine the behaviour of inflation uncertainty. By con - trast, in EMS countries – these countries have geared their monetary policies to an exchange rate target – inflation seems to have no impact on inflation uncertainty. This finding is probably due first, to the absence of any institution - al restriction that characterises non-EMS membership, on the manner the monetary policy is pursued, and second, to the fact that under a monetary rule, any institutional or regulatory changes in the monetary sector are expected to fall more adversely upon inflation as well as inflation uncertainty.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M., 1996.
"Inflation targeting in a small open economy: Empirical results for Switzerland,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-103, February.
- Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1995. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: empirical results for Switzerland," Working Papers 1995-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1987.
"An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and Some Implications for Real Output,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 353-72, June.
- Richard T. Froyen & Roger N. Waud, 1984. "An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and SomeImplications for Real Output," NBER Working Papers 1460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Hutchison & John P. Judd, 1991.
"Central bank secrecy and money surprises: international evidence,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
91-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hutchison, Michael & Judd, John P, 1992. "Central Bank Secrecy and Money Surprises: International Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 135-45, February.
- Serletis, Apostolos & King, Martin, 1993. "The role of money in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 91-107.
- Laurence Ball, 1990.
"Why Does High Inflation Raise Inflation Uncertainty?,"
NBER Working Papers
3224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
- Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990.
"Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
- Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-37, August.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Ljungqvist, Lars, 1988. "Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate money-output relation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 217-235, September.
- Nikos Apergis & John Papanastasiou & Kostas Velentzas, 1997. "The credibility of policy announcements: Greek evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 699-705.
- Apergis, Nicholas, 1997. "Inflation uncertainty, money demand, and monetary deregulation: Evidence from a univariate ARCH model and cointegration tests," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 279-293, June.
- Daniel Racette & Jacques Raynauld, 1992. "Canadian Monetary Policy: Will the Checklist Approach Ever Get Us to Price Stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 819-38, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jong-Eun Lee)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.