An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and SomeImplications for Real Output
This study constructs measures of aggregate price uncertainty for four industrialized countries (Canada, West Germany, Great Britain, and the United States) and attempts to assess the extent to which more rapid and more variable price changes appear to have contributed to increased aggregate price uncertainty. For this purpose we examine the relationship across countries and through time between the rate of inflation, inflation variability, and our measures of price uncertainty. In addition we use our measures of price uncertainty to examine the hypothesis, variously put forward by Marshall, Keynes, Milton Friedman, and Okun, that higher aggregate price uncertainty is likely tor esult in lower real output and higher unemployment. Our results suggest that the higher and more variable inflation of the 1970s did increase uncertainty about the aggregate price level in Canada, Great Britain and the United States, but the evidence for West Germany would not sustain such a conclusion. Finally,we did find evidence of a significant negative output effect of aggregate price uncertainty for Canada and the United Kingdom, but not for the United States or West Germany.
|Date of creation:||Sep 1984|
|Publication status:||published as Froyen, Richard T. and Roger N. Waud. "An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and Some Implications for Real Output," International Economic Review, Vol. 28, No. 2, June 1987, pp. 353-372.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.|
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1979. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 595-609, September.
- Nelson, Charles R, 1979.
"Recursive Structure in U.S. Income, Prices, and Output,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1307-1327, December.
- Nelson, Charles R., 1976. "Recursive structure in U.S. income, prices and output," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 1, pages 2-32.
- Taylor, John B., 1981. "On the relation between the variability of inflation and the average inflation rate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-85, January.
- Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1985.
"Demand Variability, Supply Shocks and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 9-15, February.
- Richard T. Froyen & Roger N. Waud, 1983. "Demand Variability, Supply Shocks and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 1081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Durbin, J, 1970. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Least-Squares Regression When Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(3), pages 410-421, May.
- Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978.
"Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
- Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards An Understanding of the Real Effects and Costs of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 0303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
- Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
- Makin, John H, 1982.
"Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty and Real Economic Activity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 126-134, February.
- John H. Makin, 1981. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty, and Real Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 0760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mullineaux, Donald J, 1980. "Unemployment, Industrial Production, and Inflation Uncertainty in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(2), pages 163-169, May.
- Blinder, Alan S, 1981. "Monetary Accommodation of Supply Shocks under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 425-438, November.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1980. "Monetary Accommodation of Supply Shocks under Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1460. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.