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Contrainte extérieure et compétitivité dans la transition vers l'union économique et monétaire

  • Camille Baulant
  • Michel Aglietta
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    [eng] External constraint and competitiveness in the transition toward the economic and monetary union Michel Aglietta, Camille Baulant Real convergence was not tackled formally within the criteria of the Maastricht Treaty. However, it underlies the monetary crisis in Europe and makes the achievement of EMU doubtful. Looking at real convergence, one can assess whether a country is able to adjust to asymmetrical shocks without any realignment of its nominal exchange rate. One can also investigate whether a particular country will achieve its long run potential growth in a monetary union. The means of real convergence are supply-side factors. They combine price and non-price competitiveness. In this paper we study the factors of competitiveness theoretically and empirically to estimate the strenghts and weaknesses of the five main countries in the Community. Structural differences between the above-mentioned countries remain substantial. Only France and Germany seem capable of sustaining the competition in the single market without the help of a depreciating trend in their real exchange rates. Other countries have experienced nominal devaluations since September 1992 which are consistent with required real depreciations. [fre] La convergence réelle n'a pas été directement adressée dans les critères formels du Traité de Maastricht. Elle hante pourtant la crise monétaire européenne et alimente le doute sur la réalisation de IVEM. La convergence réelle concerne la capacité d'un pays d'absorber des chocs asymétriques sans recourir à une modification de son taux de change nominal. C'est aussi à plus long terme la possibilité pour un pays de préserver la croissance compatible avec le meilleur emploi de ses ressources au sein d'une union monétaire. Les moyens de la convergence réelle doivent être recherchés du côté de l'offre dans la combinaison des facteurs de la compétitivité-prix et de la compétitivité hors prix. Le présent article étudie ces facteurs à la fois théoriquement et empiriquement pour mesurer les forces et faiblesses des cinq plus grands pays de la Communauté. Les différences structurelles entre ces pays demeurent considérables. Seules la France et l'Allemagne paraissent capables de soutenir la concurrence du marché unique sans modification tendancielle des taux de change réels. Pour les autres pays, les variations des taux de changes nominaux depuis septembre 1992 ont aidé les dépréciations réelles qui demeurent indispensables.

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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue de l'OFCE.

    Volume (Year): 48 (1994)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 7-54

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:rvofce:ofce_0751-6614_1994_num_48_1_1353
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ofce.1994.1353
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