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Une nouvelle évaluation empirique des coûts de l'Union monétaire européenne

  • Hélène Erkel-Rousse
  • Jacques Mélitz

[eng] A New Empirical Evaluation of the Costs of European Monetary Union by Hélène Erkel-Rousse and Jacques Mélitz This paper presents an evaluation of the costs of European Monetary Union (EMU) using the structural VAR approach. This approach is based on a model identifying structural shocks sustained by the European Union member states and bringing into play a set of long-run constraints in the tradition of those proposed by the pioneering Blanchard and Quah article (1989). We apply this method to all member states for which data are available, i.e. Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Our contribution here is primarily methodological, taking traditional considerations regarding the degree of shock asymmetry among member states a step further. We endeavour in particular to isolate an exchange rate shock and evaluate its short-run impact on prices and volumes for each country studied. In this way, we seek to evaluate the extent of the sacrifice made by any member state that abandons its sovereignty over monetary policy. Similarly, we attempt to isolate a domestic demand shock to measure the possible advantages to member states of having an independent fiscal policy within EMU. The degree of shock asymmetry affecting the member states of a monetary union is obviously one of the questions raised, but is not the only one. [fre] Une nouvelle évaluation empirique des coûts de l'Union monétaire européenne par Hélène Erkel-Rousse et Jacques Mélitz Cet article présente une évaluation des coûts de l'Union monétaire européenne (UME) à l'aide de l'approche des Var structurels. Cette dernière repose sur un schéma d'identification des chocs structurels - subis par les États membres de l'Union européenne - mettant en œuvre un jeu de contraintes à long terme dans la lignée de celles proposées dans l'article fondateur de Blanchard et Quah (1989). Nous appliquons cette méthode à tous les États membres possibles compte tenu des données disponibles, soit : l'Allemagne, l'Espagne, la France, l'Italie, les Pays-Bas et le Royaume-Uni. Notre apport, avant tout méthodologique, consiste à aller au-delà des traditionnelles considérations relatives au degré d'asymétrie des chocs entre États membres. Nous tentons notamment d'isoler un choc sur les taux de change et d'évaluer son impact à court terme sur les prix et les volumes, pour chaque pays étudié. Par ce biais, nous cherchons à évaluer l'ampleur du sacrifice consenti par tout État membre abandonnant la souveraineté de la politique monétaire. De même, nous tentons d'isoler un choc sur la demande intérieure, pour mesurer quel profit les États membres tireraient de l'indépendance de la politique budgétaire au sein de l'UME. Le degré d'asymétrie des chocs affectant les États membres d'une union monétaire fait certes partie des questions évoquées ; mais ce n'est pas la seule.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 128 (1997)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 21-39

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_128_2_5847
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5847
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  1. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," Economics Working Papers 92-187, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Smaghi, L.B. & Area, C., 1993. "Rating the EC as an Optimal Currency Area," Papers 187, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  4. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Hélène Erkel-Rousse, 1997. "Degré de flexibilité des marchés du travail, ajustement à des chocs asymétriques et union monétaire européenne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 128(2), pages 79-100.
  6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  7. De Grauwe, Paul & Vanhaverbeke, Wim, 1991. "Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from Regional Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
  9. Jobert, T., 1992. "Test de recine unitaire : une strategie et sa mise en oeuvre," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 92.44, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
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