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La détermination des taux de change parallèles en Afrique : modèle macro-économique et test économétrique (Nigeria, Zaïre, Ghana)

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-Paul Azam
  • Cécile Daubrée

[fre] La détermination des taux de change parallèles en Afrique : modèle macro-économique et lest économétrique (Nigeria, Zaïre, Ghana), par Jean-Paul Azam, Cécile Daubrée. On étudie ici un petit modèle macro-économique de détermination des taux de change parallèles en vue d'une application aux économies africaines. On met ainsi en évidence l'influence positive de la quantité de monnaie et du prix au producteur du bien exportable sur l'évolution du taux de change parallèle, l'influence négative du prix mondial du bien exporté et des quotas d'importation, et enfin une influence ambiguë du prix mondial du bien importé. L'application économétrique faite pour les cas du Nigeria, du Zaïre et du Ghana montre que les hypothèses du modèle ne sont pas rejetées, les variables explicatives apparaissant toutes, sauf l'une d'entre elles dans un cas, fortement significatives. [eng] Determining Parallel Exchange Rates in Africa: a Macro-Economic Model and an Econometric Test (Nigeria, Zaïre, Ghana), by Jean-Paul Azam, Cécile Daubrée. A small macro-economic model for determining parallel exchange rates with a view of applying them to African economies is examined in this paper. In doing so, the positive effect of the quantity of currency and the producer price of the exportable goods on the development of the parallel exchange rate is pointed out as is the negative effect of the world price of the exported goods and import quotas, and an effect which is neither fully positive or fully negative, ie the world price of imported goods. The econometric applications calculated for Nigeria, Zaire and Ghana show that the model's hypotheses were not rejected, all the explanatory variables appearing highly significant except for one of them in one of the cases. [ger] Die Bestimmung der parallelen Wechselkurse in Afrika: makroôkonomisches Modell und ökonometrischer Test (Nigeria, Zaire, Ghana), von Jean-Paul Azam, Cécile Daubrée. In dieser Studie wird ein kleines makroökonomisches Modell zur Bestimmung der parallelen Wechselkurse untersucht, das auf die afrikanischen Wirtschaften angewandt wird. Auf diese Weise werden der positive Einfluß der Geldmenge und des Erzeugerpreises des Exportgutes, der negative Einfluß des Weltmarktpreises des exportierten Guts und der Einfuhrquoten sowie ein zweideutiger Einfluß des Weltmarktpreises der importierten Ware auf die Entwicklung des parallelen Wechselkurses aufgezeigt. Aus der ökonometrischen Anwendung des Modells auf die Situation Nigerias, Zaires und Ghanas geht hervor, daß die Hypothesen des Modells nicht widerlegt werden, da die erklärenden Variablen, bis auf eine Ausnahme in einem Fall, aile recht bezeichnend erscheinen. [spa] Determinación de los tipos de cambio paralelos en Africa. Modelo macroeconômico y test econométrico (Nigeria, Zaire y Ghana), por Jean-Paul Azam y Cécile Daubrée. En este artículo se analiza un pequeño modelo macroeconómico de determinación de los tipos de cambio paralelos con miras a su aplicación a las economias africanas. De esta forma se pone de relieve la influencia positiva de la cantidad de moneda y del precio del bien exportable pagado al productor sobre la evolutión del tipo de cambio paralelo, la influencia negativa del precio mundial del bien exportado y de las cuotas de importación y, por último, la influencia ambigua del precio mundial del bien importado. La aplicación econométrica del modelo a la economía de Nigería, Zaire y Ghana muestra que las hipótesis del modelo no son rechazadas y que todas las variables explicativas, salvo una sola, son considerablemente significativas.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

Volume (Year): 97 (1991)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 105-115

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Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1991_num_97_1_5215
Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1991.5215
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  1. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Razin, Assaf, 1989. "Exchange-rate management viewed as tax policies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 761-781, April.
  2. Sheikh, Munir A., 1976. "Black market for foreign exchange, capital flows and smuggling," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 9-26, March.
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1986. "Special Exchange Rates for Capital Account Transactions," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 1(1), pages 3-33, September.
  5. Franco, G. Robert, 1981. "The optimal producer price of cocoa in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 77-92, February.
  6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1988. "Real and monetary determinants of real exchange rate behavior: Theory and evidence from developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 311-341, November.
  7. Roemer, Michael, 1986. "Simple analytics of segmented markets: What case for liberalization?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 429-439, March.
  8. Pitt, Mark M., 1981. "Smuggling and price disparity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 447-458, November.
  9. Cardoso, Eliana A., 1981. "Food supply and inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 269-284, June.
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