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A Disaggregated Analysis of the Impact of Output Gap on Inflation and Implications for Monetary Policy

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  • Oguz Atuk
  • Mustafa Utku Özmen
  • Cagri Sarikaya

Abstract

This study investigates the sensitivity of Consumer Price Index (CPI) sub-items to output gap for an emerging market economy, Turkey. To this aim, we estimate standard Phillips Curve equations for each of the 152 sub-indices of the CPI and determine the goods and services that respond to output gap in a statistically and economically significant manner. Thereby, we propose an alternative view to assess core inflation as a complementary tool to better monitor underlying inflation with respect to its main drivers. Empirical findings show that about one-third of the consumer basket is affected by the output gap. Remaining items that are found to be insensitive to business cycle extensively co-move with import prices and exchange rate. The results imply that controlling inflation through counter-cyclical policies may be a more challenging issue, especially when external factors work in the opposite direction. Policy efforts to reduce exchange rate volatility and import content of aggregate production are as important as cyclical policies geared toward steering the economy with respect to its potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Oguz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Özmen & Cagri Sarikaya, 2018. "A Disaggregated Analysis of the Impact of Output Gap on Inflation and Implications for Monetary Policy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(6), pages 668-683.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2018:y:2018:i:6:id:677:p:668-683
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.677
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2016. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 770-784, October.
    2. M. Utku Özmen & Orhun Sevinç, 2016. "Price Rigidity in Turkey: Evidence from Micro Data," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(4), pages 1029-1045, April.
    3. Altan Aldan & Hatice Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer, 2016. "Real Wages and the Business Cycle in Turkey," Working Papers 1625, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić & Petar Sorić, 2016. "Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 154-168, January.
    5. Claudio E. V. Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2007. "Globalisation and inflation: New cross-country evidence on the global determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 227, Bank for International Settlements.
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    7. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    8. Harun Alp & Fethi Ogunc & Cagri Sarikaya, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Output Gap : Mind the Composition," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1207, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Chengsi Zhang, 2015. "The Effect of Globalization on Inflation in New Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 1021-1033, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Burhan Biçer & Almila Burgac Cil, 2023. "Symmetric and Asymmetric Dynamics of Output Gap and Inflation Relation for Turkish Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(5), pages 520-549.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; inflation; Phillips Curve; core inflation; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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