IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0307490.html

Dynamic impacts of public health events on price fluctuations in broiler industry Chain in China: Evidence from COVID-19 epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Ning Xie
  • Haixin Fan
  • Xiaochun Liu
  • Feng Ye
  • Zhenlin Weng

Abstract

Using weekly data from January 2020 to December 2021 on the prices of various links in the Chinese broiler industry chain and the COVID-19 epidemic, we employed a time-varying parametric vector auto-regressive (TVP-VAR) model to investigate the dynamic effects of public health events on price fluctuations of upstream, midstream, and downstream products in the Chinese broiler industry chain. Our findings showed that the COVID-19 epidemic had different effects on the prices of various broiler products, both in direction and magnitude, at different lags and time intervals. Chicken and live chicken prices were impacted the most, followed by broiler chick prices, while broiler feed prices were impacted the least. The epidemic constantly impacted broiler chick and chicken prices, while its effect on live chicken prices was initially negative but turned positive afterwards. Additionally, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on broiler product prices consistently increased with more extended lag periods. The impulse responses at different epidemic time points were heterogeneous. With the results of this study, policy recommendations can be suggested to relevant government departments to optimize the prevention and control measures for public health emergencies and ensure price stability in the broiler industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Ning Xie & Haixin Fan & Xiaochun Liu & Feng Ye & Zhenlin Weng, 2024. "Dynamic impacts of public health events on price fluctuations in broiler industry Chain in China: Evidence from COVID-19 epidemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(7), pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0307490
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0307490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0307490
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0307490&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0307490?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaowei Wen & Lin Li & Sangluo Sun & Qinying He & Fu-Sheng Tsai, 2019. "The Contribution of Chicken Products’ Export to Economic Growth: Evidence from China, the United States, and Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Jebabli, Ikram & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "On the effects of world stock market and oil price shocks on food prices: An empirical investigation based on TVP-VAR models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 66-98.
    3. Bina, Justin D. & Tonsor, Glynn T. & Schulz, Lee L. & Hahn, William F., 2022. "Regional and plant-size impacts of COVID-19 on beef processing," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    4. Saghaian, Sayed H. & Ozertan, Gokhan & Spaulding, Aslihan D., 2008. "Dynamics of Price Transmission in the Presence of a Major Food Safety Shock: Impact of H5N1 Avian Influenza on the Turkish Poultry Sector," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Hassouneh, Islam & Radwan, Amr & Serra, Teresa & Gil, José M., 2012. "Food scare crises and developing countries: The impact of avian influenza on vertical price transmission in the Egyptian poultry sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 264-274.
    6. Lavinia Scudiero & Mehroosh Tak & Pablo Alarcón & Bhavani Shankar, 2023. "Understanding household and food system determinants of chicken and egg consumption in India," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(5), pages 1231-1254, October.
    7. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    8. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    9. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2021. "How COVID-19 drives connectedness among commodity and financial markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR and causality-in-quantiles techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    10. Liangzhi You & Xinshen Diao, 2007. "Assessing the Potential Impact of Avian Influenza on Poultry in West Africa: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 348-367, June.
    11. Kang, Wensheng & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Ratti, Ronald A., 2019. "The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qin, Yun & Chen, Jinyu & Dong, Xuesong, 2021. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and travel and leisure stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    2. Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Kaya Tokmakcioglu, 2022. "Assessment of the asymmetric impacts of the geopolitical risk on oil market dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 275-289, January.
    3. Liu, Yunqiang & Liu, Sha & Ye, Deping & Tang, Hong & Wang, Fang, 2022. "Dynamic impact of negative public sentiment on agricultural product prices during COVID-19," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Long, Shaobo & Guo, Jiaqi, 2022. "Infectious disease equity market volatility, geopolitical risk, speculation, and commodity returns: Comparative analysis of five epidemic outbreaks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Ning Xie & Yurong Zhu & Heng Liu & Feng Ye & Xiaochun Liu, 2024. "Impacts of Different Epidemic Outbreaks on Broiler Industry Chain Price Fluctuations in China: Implications for Sustainable Food Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-17, July.
    6. Liang Xie & Xianzhong Mu & Kuanyuting Lu & Dongou Hu & Guangwen Hu, 2023. "The time-varying relationship between CO2 emissions, heterogeneous energy consumption, and economic growth in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 7769-7793, August.
    7. Kang, Sang Hoon & Islam, Faridul & Kumar Tiwari, Aviral, 2019. "The dynamic relationships among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy sources, and economic growth in India: Evidence from time-varying Bayesian VAR model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 90-101.
    8. Gong, Xu & Liu, Yun & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "Dynamic volatility spillovers across oil and natural gas futures markets based on a time-varying spillover method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Anna Gainetdinova & Kazi Sohag, 2025. "The dynamic response of Russian exchange rate to precious metals and minerals prices," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 38(1), pages 59-75, March.
    10. Jiasheng Yu & Maojun Zhang & Ruoyu Liu & Guodong Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty on Green Bond Volatility: An Empirical Investigation Based on TVP-VAR Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, January.
    11. Dong, Xiao & Yu, Mingzhe, 2024. "Time-varying effects of macro shocks on cross-border capital flows in China's bond market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
    12. Li, Houjian & Li, Qingman & Huang, Xinya & Guo, Lili, 2023. "Do green bonds and economic policy uncertainty matter for carbon price? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    13. Xingchen Lv & Jun Meng & Qiufeng Wu, 2022. "Dynamic Influence of Network Public Opinions on Price Fluctuation of Small Agricultural Products Based on NLP-TVP-VAR Model—Taking Garlic as an Example," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The time-varying effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties on commodity market dynamics: A TVP-SVAR-SV analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhong, Meirui, 2022. "Do oil prices and economic policy uncertainty matter for precious metal returns? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 433-445.
    16. Wenying Zeng & Songbai Song & Yan Kang & Xuan Gao & Rui Ma, 2022. "Response of Runoff to Meteorological Factors Based on Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive Model with Stochastic Volatility in Arid and Semi-Arid Area of Weihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-12, June.
    17. Shanglei Chai & Wenjun Chu & Zhen Zhang & Zhilong Li & Mohammad Zoynul Abedin, 2025. "Dynamic nonlinear connectedness between the green bonds, clean energy, and stock price: the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 345(2), pages 1137-1164, February.
    18. Gong, Xu & Jin, Yujing & Liu, Tangyong, 2023. "Analyzing pure contagion between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    19. Zhou, Mei-Jing & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2020. "The effects of geopolitical risks on the stock dynamics of China's rare metals: A TVP-VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Lan Yi & Jianping Tao & Caifeng Tan & Zhongkun Zhu, 2019. "Avian Influenza, Public Opinion, and Risk Spillover: Measurement, Theory, and Evidence from China’s Broiler Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-44, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0307490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.