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Can trade and security alliance help reduce interstate war?

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  • Seung-Whan Choi

Abstract

This study explains how the gap between theory and empirical research hinders scientific progress in the area of international political economy. To demonstrate this point, I use Chen’s Extended Dependence Theory, which challenges liberal peace theory but fails to provide supporting empirical evidence. Chen contends that it is not trade dependence between two states that fosters peace but a challenger’s trade relations with the defense-pact partners of the target. Although Chen criticizes liberal peace proponents whose primary concern is how to deter war, his empirical analysis is confined to how to decrease (fatal) militarized disputes short of war. I argue that for his theory to succeed, it must be validated against the most severe and intense form of conflict. Using statistical tests and substantive significance, I uncover no peace-building effect, with regards to war, attributable to Extended Dependence. It appears that the Extended Dependence variable exhibits a ceiling effect. Future research should explain why economic ties and security institutions fail to work together to lower the risk of the most destructive form of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Seung-Whan Choi, 2024. "Can trade and security alliance help reduce interstate war?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(6), pages 1-13, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0304482
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0304482
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    1. Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer & Mathias Thoenig, 2012. "The Geography of Conflicts and Regional Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 1-35, October.
    2. Pevehouse, Jon & Russett, Bruce, 2006. "Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 969-1000, October.
    3. Seung-Whan Choi, 2022. "Nationalism and withdrawals from intergovernmental organizations: Connecting theory and data," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 205-215, January.
    4. King, Gary & Zeng, Langche, 2001. "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 137-163, January.
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