IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0302068.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prediction analysis of carbon emission in China’s electricity industry based on the dual carbon background

Author

Listed:
  • Ze-qun Ding
  • Hong-qing Zhu
  • Wei-ye Zhou
  • Zhi-gang Bai

Abstract

The electric power sector is the primary contributor to carbon emissions in China. Considering the context of dual carbon goals, this paper examines carbon emissions within China’s electricity sector. The research utilizes the LMDI approach for methodological rigor. The results show that the cumulative contribution of economies scale, power consumption factors and energy structure are 114.91%, 85.17% and 0.94%, which contribute to the increase of carbon emissions, the cumulative contribution of power generation efficiency and ratio of power dissipation to generation factor are -19.15% and -0.01%, which promotes the carbon reduction. The decomposition analysis highlights the significant influence of economic scale on carbon emissions in the electricity industry, among the seven factors investigated. Meanwhile, STIRPAT model, Logistic model and GM(1,1) model are used to predict carbon emissions, the average relative error between actual carbon emissions and the predicted values are 0.23%, 8.72% and 7.05%, which indicates that STIRPAT model is more suitable for medium- to long-term predictions. Based on these findings, the paper proposes practical suggestions to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the dual carbon goals of the power industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Ze-qun Ding & Hong-qing Zhu & Wei-ye Zhou & Zhi-gang Bai, 2024. "Prediction analysis of carbon emission in China’s electricity industry based on the dual carbon background," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(5), pages 1-17, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0302068
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0302068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0302068
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0302068&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0302068?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jia, Junsong & Deng, Hongbing & Duan, Jing & Zhao, Jingzhu, 2009. "Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method--A case study in Henan Province, China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(11), pages 2818-2824, September.
    2. Liu, Yue & Sun, Huaping & Meng, Bo & Jin, Shunlin & Chen, Bin, 2023. "How to purchase carbon emission right optimally for energy-consuming enterprises? Analysis based on optimal stopping model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yanpeng & Masron, Tajul Ariffin, 2025. "The role of media visibility in mitigating greenwashing driven by executive environmental cognition: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Huijie Yan & Mateo Cordier & Takuro Uehara, 2024. "Future Projections of Global Plastic Pollution: Scenario Analyses and Policy Implications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    3. Mayra Vega-Campa & Francisco J André & Mario Soliño, 2023. "Socioeconomic driving forces behind air polluting emissions in Mexico," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(10), pages 1-13, October.
    4. Jiazhan Gao & Guihong Hua & Baofeng Huo, 2025. "Turning “green” into “gold”: A study on the impact of green finance pilot zone policy on energy carbon emission efficiency," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 129-143, February.
    5. Long, X. & Ji, Xi & Ulgiati, S., 2017. "Is urbanization eco-friendly? An energy and land use cross-country analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 387-396.
    6. Shi, Shouyuan & Yu, Tao & Lan, Chaofan & Pan, Zhenning, 2024. "Estimating the actual emission cost in an annual compliance cycle: Synergistic generation and carbon trading optimization for price-taking generation companies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 376(PA).
    7. Derya Topdag & Tuğçe Acar & İsmail Erkan Celik, 2020. "Estimation of the Global-Scale Ecological Footprint within the Framework of STIRPAT Models: The Quantile Regression Approach," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
    8. Simona Ioana Ghita & Andreea Simona Saseanu & Rodica-Manuela Gogonea & Catalin-Emilian Huidumac-Petrescu, 2018. "Perspectives of Ecological Footprint in European Context under the Impact of Information Society and Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, September.
    9. Ye-Ning Wang & Qiang Zhou & Hao-Wei Wang, 2020. "Assessing Ecological Carrying Capacity in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Based on a Three-Dimensional Ecological Footprint Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-18, November.
    10. Liang Chen & Zhifeng Yang & Bin Chen, 2013. "Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-9, October.
    11. Ishrar Sameen & Tasnim Feroze, 2021. "Spatial heterogeneity of ecological footprint of production: a district-level study of Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 8949-8973, June.
    12. Ekrem Yilmaz & Fatma Sensoy, 2022. "Effects of Fossil Fuel Usage in Electricity Production on CO2 Emissions: A STIRPAT Model Application on 20 Selected Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 224-229, November.
    13. Na Lu & Shuyi Feng & Ziming Liu & Weidong Wang & Hualiang Lu & Miao Wang, 2020. "The Determinants of Carbon Emissions in the Chinese Construction Industry: A Spatial Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    14. Wang, Mingwei & Che, Yue & Yang, Kai & Wang, Min & Xiong, Lijun & Huang, Yuchi, 2011. "A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District, Shanghai, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6981-6990.
    15. Xingyuan Xiao & Minyue Hu & Minghong Tan & Xiubin Li & Wei Li, 2018. "Changes in the Ecological Footprint of Rural Populations in the Taihang Mountains, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.
    16. Vélez-Henao, Johan-Andrés & Font Vivanco, David & Hernández-Riveros, Jesús-Antonio, 2019. "Technological change and the rebound effect in the STIRPAT model: A critical view," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 1372-1381.
    17. Bo Li & Xuejing Liu & Zhenhong Li, 2015. "Using the STIRPAT model to explore the factors driving regional CO 2 emissions: a case of Tianjin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1667-1685, April.
    18. Wang, Zhaohua & Yin, Fangchao & Zhang, Yixiang & Zhang, Xian, 2012. "An empirical research on the influencing factors of regional CO2 emissions: Evidence from Beijing city, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 277-284.
    19. Wei Sun & Junli Li & Wenxi Qu, 2022. "Sustainability evolution and factors based on ecological footprint: A case study of Rizhao, China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 132-150, March.
    20. Decun Wu & Jinping Liu, 2020. "Threshold Effects of Restraining Factors on China’s Provincial Ecological Footprint in the Process of Urbanization," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-19, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0302068. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.