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Spatiotemporal evolution of urban populations and housing: A dynamic utility-driven market-mediated model

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  • P A Robinson
  • A McInnes
  • Somwrita Sarkar

Abstract

A model of the spatiotemporal evolution of urban areas is developed that simultaneously includes the effects on household utility of geography, population density, income distribution, and household preference for characteristics of dwellings and neighbors. The result is a utility function whose structure is similar to that of the energy of interacting spin systems in external fields. Spatiotemporal housing market evolution then results via transactions driven by increases in utility and changes in numbers of households and dwellings. It is shown that the model successfully predicts formation of monocentric and polycentric urban areas, stratification by wealth, segregation due to preferences for housing or neighbors, and the balance of supply and demand. These results go well beyond those of prior models that each dealt with subsets of these phenomena, and do so within a single, unified framework. Potential generalizations are discussed and further applications are suggested.

Suggested Citation

  • P A Robinson & A McInnes & Somwrita Sarkar, 2023. "Spatiotemporal evolution of urban populations and housing: A dynamic utility-driven market-mediated model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(4), pages 1-33, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0282583
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0282583
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fujita,Masahisa, 1991. "Urban Economic Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521396455, Enero.
    2. Peter Bergman & Raj Chetty & Stefanie DeLuca & Nathaniel Hendren & Lawrence F. Katz & Christopher Palmer, 2024. "Creating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(5), pages 1281-1337, May.
    3. Fujita, Masahisa & Ogawa, Hideaki, 1982. "Multiple equilibria and structural transition of non-monocentric urban configurations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 161-196, May.
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