IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0182274.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Tereza Cristina Giannini
  • Wilian França Costa
  • Guaraci Duran Cordeiro
  • Vera Lucia Imperatriz-Fonseca
  • Antonio Mauro Saraiva
  • Jacobus Biesmeijer
  • Lucas Alejandro Garibaldi

Abstract

Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to find new suitable areas that have the potential to improve crop production. The results shown here could guide policy decisions for adapting to climate change and for preventing the loss of pollinator species and crop production.

Suggested Citation

  • Tereza Cristina Giannini & Wilian França Costa & Guaraci Duran Cordeiro & Vera Lucia Imperatriz-Fonseca & Antonio Mauro Saraiva & Jacobus Biesmeijer & Lucas Alejandro Garibaldi, 2017. "Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0182274
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0182274
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0182274&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0182274?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. S. Warren & J. K. Hill & J. A. Thomas & J. Asher & R. Fox & B. Huntley & D. B. Roy & M. G. Telfer & S. Jeffcoate & P. Harding & G. Jeffcoate & S. G. Willis & J. N. Greatorex-Davies & D. Moss & C. D, 2001. "Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change," Nature, Nature, vol. 414(6859), pages 65-69, November.
    2. Simon G. Potts & Vera Imperatriz-Fonseca & Hien T. Ngo & Marcelo A. Aizen & Jacobus C. Biesmeijer & Thomas D. Breeze & Lynn V. Dicks & Lucas A. Garibaldi & Rosemary Hill & Josef Settele & Adam J. Vanb, 2016. "Safeguarding pollinators and their values to human well-being," Nature, Nature, vol. 540(7632), pages 220-229, December.
    3. Chris Funk & Molly Brown, 2009. "Declining global per capita agricultural production and warming oceans threaten food security," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 1(3), pages 271-289, September.
    4. Jesús Aguirre-Gutiérrez & Luísa G Carvalheiro & Chiara Polce & E Emiel van Loon & Niels Raes & Menno Reemer & Jacobus C Biesmeijer, 2013. "Fit-for-Purpose: Species Distribution Model Performance Depends on Evaluation Criteria – Dutch Hoverflies as a Case Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(5), pages 1-11, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Debora Sotto & Arlindo Philippi & Tan Yigitcanlar & Md Kamruzzaman, 2019. "Aligning Urban Policy with Climate Action in the Global South: Are Brazilian Cities Considering Climate Emergency in Local Planning Practice?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-31, September.
    2. Eungul Lee & Yaqian He & Yong-Lak Park, 2018. "Effects of climate change on the phenology of Osmia cornifrons: implications for population management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 305-317, October.
    3. Bezerra, Antonio Diego M. & Pacheco Filho, Alípio J.S. & Bomfim, Isac G.A. & Smagghe, Guy & Freitas, Breno M., 2019. "Agricultural area losses and pollinator mismatch due to climate changes endanger passion fruit production in the Neotropics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 49-57.
    4. Wongnak, Phrutsamon & Bord, Séverine & Donnet, Sophie & Hoch, Thierry & Beugnet, Frederic & Chalvet-Monfray, Karine, 2022. "A hierarchical Bayesian approach for incorporating expert opinions into parametric survival models: A case study of female Ixodes ricinus ticks exposed to various temperature and relative humidity con," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tukufu Zuberi & Kevin J.A. Thomas, "undated". "Demographic Projections, the Environment and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa," UNDP Africa Policy Notes 2012-001, United Nations Development Programme, Regional Bureau for Africa.
    2. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    3. Leandro, Camila & Jay-Robert, Pierre & Mériguet, Bruno & Houard, Xavier & Renner, Ian W., 2020. "Is my sdm good enough? insights from a citizen science dataset in a point process modeling framework," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 438(C).
    4. Nicolás Ruiz, Néstor & Suárez Alonso, María Luisa & Vidal-Abarca, María Rosario, 2021. "Contributions of dry rivers to human well-being: A global review for future research," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Aduralere Opeyemi Oyelade & Onome Bright Oghenetega & Favour Eforuoku, 2020. "Labour Force Participation Rate and it Implications on Food Security, Fertility Rate and Economic Growth in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) Countries," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 4, pages 444-458.
    6. Hristov, Jordan & Clough, Yann & Sahlin, Ullrika & Smith, Henrik G. & Stjernman, Martin & Olsson, Ola & Sahrbacher, Amanda & Brady, Mark V., 2020. "Impacts of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy “Greening” reform on agricultural development, biodiversity, and ecosystem services," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 716-738.
    7. Social Policy and Population Section, Social Development Division, ESCAP., 2015. "Asia-Pacific Population Journal Volume 30, No. 2," Asia-Pacific Population Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 30(2), pages 1-86, June.
    8. Barker, Justin R. & MacIsaac, Hugh J., 2022. "Species distribution models: Administrative boundary centroid occurrences require careful interpretation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 472(C).
    9. Teodoro Semeraro & Roberta Aretano & Amilcare Barca & Alessandro Pomes & Cecilia Del Giudice & Elisa Gatto & Marcello Lenucci & Riccardo Buccolieri & Rohinton Emmanuel & Zhi Gao & Alessandra Scognamig, 2020. "A Conceptual Framework to Design Green Infrastructure: Ecosystem Services as an Opportunity for Creating Shared Value in Ground Photovoltaic Systems," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-28, July.
    10. Bezerra, Antonio Diego M. & Pacheco Filho, Alípio J.S. & Bomfim, Isac G.A. & Smagghe, Guy & Freitas, Breno M., 2019. "Agricultural area losses and pollinator mismatch due to climate changes endanger passion fruit production in the Neotropics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 49-57.
    11. Rau, Anna-Lena & von Wehrden, Henrik & Abson, David J., 2018. "Temporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Services," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 122-130.
    12. Felix Neff & Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt & Emmanuel Rey & Matthias Albrecht & Kurt Bollmann & Fabian Cahenzli & Yannick Chittaro & Martin M. Gossner & Carlos Martínez-Núñez & Eliane S. Meier & Christian , 2022. "Different roles of concurring climate and regional land-use changes in past 40 years’ insect trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Sabine Dritz & Rebecca A. Nelson & Fernanda S. Valdovinos, 2023. "The role of intra-guild indirect interactions in assembling plant-pollinator networks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. David Urbán-Duarte & José Fernando De La Torre-Sánchez & Yooichi Kainoh & Kazuo Watanabe, 2021. "Biodiversity and Stage of the Art of Three Pollinators Taxa in Mexico: An Overview," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-16, August.
    15. Giulia Capotorti & Simone Valeri & Arianna Giannini & Valerio Minorenti & Mariagrazia Piarulli & Paolo Audisio, 2023. "On the Role of Natural and Induced Landscape Heterogeneity for the Support of Pollinators: A Green Infrastructure Perspective Applied in a Peri-Urban System," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-29, January.
    16. Piotr Gradziuk & Krzysztof Jończyk & Barbara Gradziuk & Adrianna Wojciechowska & Anna Trocewicz & Marcin Wysokiński, 2021. "An Economic Assessment of the Impact on Agriculture of the Proposed Changes in EU Biofuel Policy Mechanisms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, October.
    17. Haowei Sun & Jinghan Ma & Li Wang, 2023. "Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(3), pages 597-612, June.
    18. Prashant Patil & Murali Krishna Gumma, 2018. "A Review of the Available Land Cover and Cropland Maps for South Asia," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-22, July.
    19. Tremlett, Constance J. & Peh, Kelvin S.-H. & Zamora-Gutierrez, Veronica & Schaafsma, Marije, 2021. "Value and benefit distribution of pollination services provided by bats in the production of cactus fruits in central Mexico," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    20. Blaydes, H. & Potts, S.G. & Whyatt, J.D. & Armstrong, A., 2021. "Opportunities to enhance pollinator biodiversity in solar parks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0182274. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.