IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v169y2019icp49-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agricultural area losses and pollinator mismatch due to climate changes endanger passion fruit production in the Neotropics

Author

Listed:
  • Bezerra, Antonio Diego M.
  • Pacheco Filho, Alípio J.S.
  • Bomfim, Isac G.A.
  • Smagghe, Guy
  • Freitas, Breno M.

Abstract

Pollinator diversity and abundance are declining in the agricultural landscapes of some parts of the world along with the pollination services they provide. Among an array of reasons, climate change has been pointed out as a major player and studies suggest strong negative impacts on agricultural pollination toward the end of the 21st century. In this study, we investigated for the first time the concomitant effect of climate changes on a tropical crop, passion fruit (Passiflora edulis), and its two main pollinator bee species (Xylocopa frontalis and X. grisescens) in the Neotropics considering two of the IPCC environmental scenarios, RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways), and in the years 2060 and 2080. We have shown that the climate changes may lead to changes in the natural ranges of Xylocopa bees, with considerable loss of habitable area (X. frontalis, RCP 4.5 = −27.3 to −15.4%; RCP 8.5 = −57.7 to −47.9%; X. grisescens, RCP 4.5 = −15.4 to −27.81%; RCP 8.5 = −23.5 to −35.3%), as well as for cropping passion fruit (RCP 4.5 = −44. 9 to −51.3%; RCP 8.5 = −42.9 to −64.8%), for years 2060 and 2080, respectively. We also predicted a potential reduction between 31.9% and 54.9% in the overlapping of the remaining suitable areas for the bees and passion fruit, increasing the potential spatial mismatch between the crop and its pollinators. Based on the models forecast of climate changes, we conclude that the suitable areas to co-occurrence of passion fruit crop and its effective pollinators will be largely affected in the Neotropics and steps to mitigate the effects of the climate changes should be taken to ensure viable population of pollinators in the remaining suitable areas for both bees and the crop.

Suggested Citation

  • Bezerra, Antonio Diego M. & Pacheco Filho, Alípio J.S. & Bomfim, Isac G.A. & Smagghe, Guy & Freitas, Breno M., 2019. "Agricultural area losses and pollinator mismatch due to climate changes endanger passion fruit production in the Neotropics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 49-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:169:y:2019:i:c:p:49-57
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X18308187
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2018.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon G. Potts & Vera Imperatriz-Fonseca & Hien Ngo & Jacobus C. Biesmeijer & Tom Breeze & Lynn Dicks & Luigi Garibaldi & Josef Settele & A.J. Vanbergen & Marcelo A. Aizen & Saul A. Cunningham & Conna, 2016. "Summary for policymakers of the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) on pollinators, pollination and food production," Post-Print hal-01946814, HAL.
    2. Simon G. Potts & Vera Imperatriz-Fonseca & Hien T. Ngo & Marcelo A. Aizen & Jacobus C. Biesmeijer & Thomas D. Breeze & Lynn V. Dicks & Lucas A. Garibaldi & Rosemary Hill & Josef Settele & Adam J. Vanb, 2016. "Safeguarding pollinators and their values to human well-being," Nature, Nature, vol. 540(7632), pages 220-229, December.
    3. Camille Parmesan & Nils Ryrholm & Constantí Stefanescu & Jane K. Hill & Chris D. Thomas & Henri Descimon & Brian Huntley & Lauri Kaila & Jaakko Kullberg & Toomas Tammaru & W. John Tennent & Jeremy A. , 1999. "Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 399(6736), pages 579-583, June.
    4. Tereza Cristina Giannini & Wilian França Costa & Guaraci Duran Cordeiro & Vera Lucia Imperatriz-Fonseca & Antonio Mauro Saraiva & Jacobus Biesmeijer & Lucas Alejandro Garibaldi, 2017. "Projected climate change threatens pollinators and crop production in Brazil," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(8), pages 1-13, August.
    5. A. J. Challinor & J. Watson & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Howden & D. R. Smith & N. Chhetri, 2014. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 287-291, April.
    6. Tom H. Oliver & Harry H. Marshall & Mike D. Morecroft & Tom Brereton & Christel Prudhomme & Chris Huntingford, 2015. "Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(10), pages 941-945, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Jiongchao & Wang, Chong & Shi, Xiaoyu & Bo, Xiaozhi & Li, Shuo & Shang, Mengfei & Chen, Fu & Chu, Qingquan, 2021. "Modeling climatically suitable areas for soybean and their shifts across China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rafaella Guimarães Porto & Rita Fernandes Almeida & Oswaldo Cruz-Neto & Marcelo Tabarelli & Blandina Felipe Viana & Carlos A. Peres & Ariadna Valentina Lopes, 2020. "Pollination ecosystem services: A comprehensive review of economic values, research funding and policy actions," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(6), pages 1425-1442, December.
    2. David Urbán-Duarte & José Fernando De La Torre-Sánchez & Yooichi Kainoh & Kazuo Watanabe, 2021. "Biodiversity and Stage of the Art of Three Pollinators Taxa in Mexico: An Overview," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-16, August.
    3. Jorge Ortega-Marcos & Violeta Hevia & Ana P. García-Nieto & José A. González, 2022. "Installing Flower Strips to Promote Pollinators in Simplified Agricultural Landscapes: Comprehensive Viability Assessment in Sunflower Fields," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-13, October.
    4. Namra Ghaffar & Bushra Noreen & Maryam Muhammad Ali & Amna Ali, 2021. "Rice Yield Estimation in Sawat Region Incorporating The Local Physio-Climatic Parameters," International Journal of Agriculture & Sustainable Development, 50sea, vol. 3(2), pages 46-50, June.
    5. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    6. Dong Sheng & Siyuan Jing & Xueqing He & Alexandra-Maria Klein & Heinz-R. Köhler & Thomas C. Wanger, 2024. "Plastic pollution in agricultural landscapes: an overlooked threat to pollination, biocontrol and food security," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Yang, Haijiang & Gou, Xiaohua & Niu, Yibo & Shi, Wenwei & Wang, Xinyun & Wei, Yuxin & Maraseni, Tek, 2024. "Assessing pollinator abundance and services to enhance agricultural sustainability and crop yield optimization in the Qilian Mountains," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    9. Dániel Fróna & János Szenderák & Mónika Harangi-Rákos, 2019. "The Challenge of Feeding the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Nicolás Ruiz, Néstor & Suárez Alonso, María Luisa & Vidal-Abarca, María Rosario, 2021. "Contributions of dry rivers to human well-being: A global review for future research," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Ignaciuk, Ada & Malevolti, Giulia & Scognamillo, Antonio & Sitko, Nicholas J., 2022. "Can food aid relax farmers’ constraints to adopting climate-adaptive agricultural practices? Evidence from Ethiopia, Malawi and the United Republic of Tanzania," ESA Working Papers 324073, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA).
    12. Dilshad Ahmad & Muhammad Afzal & Abdur Rauf, 2019. "Analysis of wheat farmers’ risk perceptions and attitudes: evidence from Punjab, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 845-861, February.
    13. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2020. "Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output," Working Papers 2003E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    14. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    15. Konrad Prandecki & Edyta Gajos, 2018. "Reductin of greenhouse gases emission and sustainability: The multi-criteria approach," International Conference on Competitiveness of Agro-food and Environmental Economy Proceedings, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 7, pages 46-54.
    16. Debora Sotto & Arlindo Philippi & Tan Yigitcanlar & Md Kamruzzaman, 2019. "Aligning Urban Policy with Climate Action in the Global South: Are Brazilian Cities Considering Climate Emergency in Local Planning Practice?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-31, September.
    17. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    18. Ehsan Rahimi & Pinliang Dong, 2022. "What are the main human pressures affecting Iran’s protected areas?," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 12(4), pages 682-691, December.
    19. Chaianunporn, Thotsapol & Hovestadt, Thomas, 2012. "Concurrent evolution of random dispersal and habitat niche width in host-parasitoid systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 241-250.
    20. Teodoro Semeraro & Roberta Aretano & Amilcare Barca & Alessandro Pomes & Cecilia Del Giudice & Elisa Gatto & Marcello Lenucci & Riccardo Buccolieri & Rohinton Emmanuel & Zhi Gao & Alessandra Scognamig, 2020. "A Conceptual Framework to Design Green Infrastructure: Ecosystem Services as an Opportunity for Creating Shared Value in Ground Photovoltaic Systems," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-28, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:169:y:2019:i:c:p:49-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.