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Tails of the Travelling Gaussian model and the relative age effect: Tales of age discrimination and wasted talent

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  • John R Doyle
  • Paul A Bottomley
  • Rob Angell

Abstract

The Relative Age Effect (RAE) documents the inherent disadvantages of being younger rather than older in an age-banded cohort, typically a school- or competition-year, to the detriment of career-progression, earnings and wellbeing into adulthood. We develop the Tails of the Travelling Gaussian (TTG) to model the mechanisms behind RAE. TTG has notable advantages over existing approaches, which have been largely descriptive, potentially confounded, and non-comparable across contexts. In Study 1, using data from the UK’s Millennium Cohort Study, we investigate the different levels of RAE bias across school-level academic subjects and “personality” traits. Study 2 concerns biased admissions to elite English Premier League soccer academies, and shows the model can still be used with minimal data. We also develop two practical metrics: the discrimination index (ID), to quantify the disadvantages facing cohort-younger children; and the wastage metric (W), to quantify the loss through untapped potential. TTG is sufficiently well-specified to simulate the consequences of ID and W for policy change.

Suggested Citation

  • John R Doyle & Paul A Bottomley & Rob Angell, 2017. "Tails of the Travelling Gaussian model and the relative age effect: Tales of age discrimination and wasted talent," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0176206
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0176206
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Muller & Lionel Page, 2016. "Born leaders: political selection and the relative age effect in the US Congress," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 179(3), pages 809-829, June.
    2. Dhuey, Elizabeth & Lipscomb, Stephen, 2008. "What makes a leader? Relative age and high school leadership," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 173-183, April.
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    1. Ante Rađa & Johnny Padulo & Igor Jelaska & Luca Paolo Ardigò & Luca Fumarco, 2018. "Relative age effect and second-tiers: No second chance for later-born players," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-12, August.
    2. Besters, Lucas, 2018. "Economics of professional football," Other publications TiSEM d9e6b9b7-a17b-4665-9cca-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. John R Doyle & Paul A Bottomley, 2018. "Relative age effect in elite soccer: More early-born players, but no better valued, and no paragon clubs or countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, February.

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