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Environmental Risk Factors influencing Bicycle Theft: A Spatial Analysis in London, UK

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  • Lucy Waruguru Mburu
  • Marco Helbich

Abstract

Urban authorities are continuously drawing up policies to promote cycling among commuters. However, these initiatives are counterproductive for the targeted objectives because they increase opportunities for bicycle theft. This paper explores Inner London as a case study to address place-specific risk factors for bicycle theft at the street-segment level while controlling for seasonal variation. The presence of certain public amenities (e.g., bicycle stands, railway stations, pawnshops) was evaluated against locations of bicycle theft between 2013 and 2016 and risk effects were estimated using negative binomial regression models. Results showed that a greater level of risk stemmed from land-use facilities than from area-based socioeconomic status. The presence of facilities such as train stations, vacant houses, pawnbrokers and payday lenders increased bicycle theft, but no evidence was found that linked police stations with crime levels. The findings have significant implications for urban crime prevention with respect to non-residential land use.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucy Waruguru Mburu & Marco Helbich, 2016. "Environmental Risk Factors influencing Bicycle Theft: A Spatial Analysis in London, UK," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0163354
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163354
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Helbich, Marco & Böcker, Lars & Dijst, Martin, 2014. "Geographic heterogeneity in cycling under various weather conditions: evidence from Greater Rotterdam," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-47.
    2. Vandenbulcke, Grégory & Thomas, Isabelle & de Geus, Bas & Degraeuwe, Bart & Torfs, Rudi & Meeusen, Romain & Int Panis, Luc, 2009. "Mapping bicycle use and the risk of accidents for commuters who cycle to work in Belgium," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 77-87, March.
    3. Frédéric Héran, 2003. "Bicycle theft in France," Post-Print halshs-00198841, HAL.
    4. Lucy W. Mburu & Marco Helbich, 2016. "Crime Risk Estimation with a Commuter-Harmonized Ambient Population," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 106(4), pages 804-818, July.
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