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Early Impact of a National Multi-Faceted Road Safety Intervention Program in Mexico: Results of a Time-Series Analysis

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  • Aruna Chandran
  • Ricardo Pérez-Núñez
  • Abdulgafoor M Bachani
  • Martha Híjar
  • Aarón Salinas-Rodríguez
  • Adnan A Hyder

Abstract

Background: In January 2008, a national multifaceted road safety intervention program (IMESEVI) funded by the Bloomberg Philanthropies was launched in Mexico. Two years later in 2010, IMESEVI was refocused as part of a 10-country international consortium demonstration project (IMESEVI/RS10). We evaluate the initial effects of each phase of the road safety intervention project on numbers of RT crashes, injuries and deaths in Mexico and in the two main target cities of Guadalajara-Zapopan and León. Methods: An interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling was performed using monthly data of rates of RT crashes and injuries (police data), as well as deaths (mortality system data) from 1999–2011 with dummy variables representing each intervention phase. Results: In the period following the first intervention phase at the country level and in the city of León, the rate of RT crashes decreased significantly (p

Suggested Citation

  • Aruna Chandran & Ricardo Pérez-Núñez & Abdulgafoor M Bachani & Martha Híjar & Aarón Salinas-Rodríguez & Adnan A Hyder, 2014. "Early Impact of a National Multi-Faceted Road Safety Intervention Program in Mexico: Results of a Time-Series Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0087482
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0087482
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    1. Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Hyder, A.A. & Allen, K.A. & Di Pietro, G. & Adriazola, C.A. & Sobel, R. & Larson, K. & Peden, M., 2012. "Addressing the implementation gap in global road safety: Exploring features of an effective response and introducing a 10-country program," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 102(6), pages 1061-1067.
    4. Inclán, Cristina & Hijar, Martha & Tovar, Victor, 2005. "Social capital in settings with a high concentration of road traffic injuries. The case of Cuernavaca, Mexico," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 61(9), pages 2007-2017, November.
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    1. Haque, M. Ohidul & Haque, Tariq H., 2018. "Evaluating the effects of the road safety system approach in Brunei," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 594-607.

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