IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0073420.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating a Markovian Epidemic Model Using Household Serial Interval Data from the Early Phase of an Epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J Black
  • Joshua V Ross

Abstract

The clinical serial interval of an infectious disease is the time between date of symptom onset in an index case and the date of symptom onset in one of its secondary cases. It is a quantity which is commonly collected during a pandemic and is of fundamental importance to public health policy and mathematical modelling. In this paper we present a novel method for calculating the serial interval distribution for a Markovian model of household transmission dynamics. This allows the use of Bayesian MCMC methods, with explicit evaluation of the likelihood, to fit to serial interval data and infer parameters of the underlying model. We use simulated and real data to verify the accuracy of our methodology and illustrate the importance of accounting for household size. The output of our approach can be used to produce posterior distributions of population level epidemic characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J Black & Joshua V Ross, 2013. "Estimating a Markovian Epidemic Model Using Household Serial Interval Data from the Early Phase of an Epidemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-8, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0073420
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0073420
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0073420
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0073420&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0073420?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil M. Ferguson & Derek A.T. Cummings & Simon Cauchemez & Christophe Fraser & Steven Riley & Aronrag Meeyai & Sopon Iamsirithaworn & Donald S. Burke, 2005. "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7056), pages 209-214, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Kinyanjui & Jo Middleton & Stefan Güttel & Jackie Cassell & Joshua Ross & Thomas House, 2018. "Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tamer Edirne & Dilek Avci & Burçak Dagkara & Muslum Aslan, 2011. "Knowledge and anticipated attitudes of the community about bird flu outbreak in Turkey, 2007–2008: a survey-based descriptive study," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 56(2), pages 163-168, April.
    2. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    3. Linus Nyiwul, 2021. "Epidemic Control and Resource Allocation: Approaches and Implications for the Management of COVID-19," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 9(2), pages 283-305, December.
    4. Zhongqiang Bai & Juanle Wang & Mingming Wang & Mengxu Gao & Jiulin Sun, 2018. "Accuracy Assessment of Multi-Source Gridded Population Distribution Datasets in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, April.
    5. Li, Qian & Xiao, Yanni, 2023. "Analysis of a hybrid SIR model combining the fixed-moments pulse interventions with susceptibles-triggered threshold policy," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 453(C).
    6. Nguyen, Le Khanh Ngan & Howick, Susan & Megiddo, Itamar, 2024. "A framework for conceptualising hybrid system dynamics and agent-based simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1153-1166.
    7. Edoardo Di Porto & Paolo Naticchioni & Vincenzo Scrutinio, 2020. "Partial Lockdown and the Spread of Covid-19: Lessons from the Italian Case," CSEF Working Papers 569, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    8. repec:plo:pcbi00:1003587 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Chenxi Dai & Dongsheng Zhou & Bo Gao & Kaifa Wang, 2023. "A new method for the joint estimation of instantaneous reproductive number and serial interval during epidemics," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(3), pages 1-25, March.
    10. repec:plo:pone00:0001519 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Khan, Mohsin & Abdalgader, Tarteel & Pedersen, Michael & Zhang, Lai, 2025. "Interactive effects of climate change and human mobility on dengue transmission," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 499(C).
    12. Eva K. Lee & Ferdinand Pietz & Bernard Benecke & Jacquelyn Mason & Greg Burel, 2013. "Advancing Public Health and Medical Preparedness with Operations Research," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 79-98, February.
    13. Sabina Alistar & Elisa Long & Margaret Brandeau & Eduard Beck, 2014. "HIV epidemic control—a model for optimal allocation of prevention and treatment resources," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 162-181, June.
    14. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1366-1389.
    15. Adam Lampert, 2022. "Decentralized governance may lead to higher infection levels and sub-optimal releases of quarantines amid the COVID-19 pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(12), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Bekiros, Stelios & Kouloumpou, Dimitra, 2020. "SBDiEM: A new mathematical model of infectious disease dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    17. Akira Watanabe & Hiroyuki Matsuda, 2023. "Effectiveness of feedback control and the trade-off between death by COVID-19 and costs of countermeasures," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 46-61, March.
    18. Andy Hong & Sandip Chakrabarti, 2023. "Compact living or policy inaction? Effects of urban density and lockdown on the COVID-19 outbreak in the US," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 60(9), pages 1588-1609, July.
    19. Lawrence M. Wein & Michael P. Atkinson, 2009. "Assessing Infection Control Measures for Pandemic Influenza," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(7), pages 949-962, July.
    20. repec:plo:pone00:0050948 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Savachkin, Alex & Uribe, Andrés, 2012. "Dynamic redistribution of mitigation resources during influenza pandemics," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 33-45.
    22. Guihua Wang, 2022. "Stay at home to stay safe: Effectiveness of stay‐at‐home orders in containing the COVID‐19 pandemic," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(5), pages 2289-2305, May.
    23. Leach, Melissa & MacGregor, Hayley & Scoones, Ian & Wilkinson, Annie, 2021. "Post-pandemic transformations: How and why COVID-19 requires us to rethink development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0073420. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.