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Temporal Discounting Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Mortality among Community-Based Older Persons without Dementia

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  • Patricia A Boyle
  • Lei Yu
  • Keith J Gamble
  • David A Bennett

Abstract

Background: Temporal discounting is an important determinant of many health and financial outcomes, but we are not aware of studies that have examined the association of temporal discounting with mortality. Methods: Participants were 406 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Temporal discounting was measured using standard preference elicitation questions. Individual discount rates were estimated using a well-established hyperbolic function and used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 5 years of follow-up. Results: The mean estimate of discounting was 0.45 (SD = 0.33, range: 0.08–0.90), with higher scores indicating a greater propensity to prefer smaller immediate rewards over larger but delayed ones. During up to 5 years of follow-up (mean = 3.6 years), 62 (15% of 406) persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, and education, temporal discounting was associated with an increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.103, 95% CI 1.024, 1.190, p = 0.010). Thus, a person with the highest discount rate (score = 0.90) was about twice more likely to die over the study period compared to a person with the lowest discount rate (score = 0.08). Further, the association of discounting with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of global cognitive function, the burden of vascular risk factors and diseases, and an indicator of psychological well being (i.e., purpose in life). Conclusion: Temporal discounting is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age after accounting for global cognitive function and indicators of physical and mental health.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia A Boyle & Lei Yu & Keith J Gamble & David A Bennett, 2013. "Temporal Discounting Is Associated with an Increased Risk of Mortality among Community-Based Older Persons without Dementia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(6), pages 1-5, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0067376
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0067376
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laibson, David, 1998. "Life-cycle consumption and hyperbolic discount functions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 861-871, May.
    2. Stephan Meier & Charles Sprenger, 2010. "Present-Biased Preferences and Credit Card Borrowing," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 193-210, January.
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    4. Christopher Chabris & David Laibson & Carrie Morris & Jonathon Schuldt & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2008. "Individual laboratory-measured discount rates predict field behavior," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 237-269, December.
    5. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. James Kennedy, 2020. "Subjective Wellbeing and the Discount Rate," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 635-658, February.
    2. Kulati, Ellam & Myck, Michał & Pasini, Giacomo, 2023. "Temporal discounting in later life," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 87-101.
    3. Myriam V. Thoma & Luca Kleineidam & Simon Forstmeier & Andreas Maercker & Siegfried Weyerer & Marion Eisele & Hendrik den Bussche & Hans-Helmut König & Susanne Röhr & Janine Stein & Birgitt Wiese & Mi, 2021. "Associations and correlates of general versus specific successful ageing components," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 549-563, December.
    4. Bryan D James & Patricia A Boyle & Lei Yu & S Duke Han & David A Bennett, 2015. "Cognitive Decline Is Associated with Risk Aversion and Temporal Discounting in Older Adults without Dementia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-12, April.

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