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Do Public Expenditure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty Matter to Private Investment? Evidence from Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Imtiaz Ahmed

    (Planning Commission of Pakistan)

  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

Abstract

This study examines the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and public expenditure in determining private fixed investment in Pakistan. It is found that individual series are nonstationary. There is a long-run relationship between private fixed investment, public consumption expenditure, public development expenditure, and market activities. It is revealed that public development expenditure stimulates private investment, whereas public consumption expenditure is detrimental to private investment. The preferred dynamic private fixed investment function confirms that in the short run, public development expenditure enhances private investment. Moreover, macroeconomic instability and uncertainty depresses private investment in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Imtiaz Ahmed & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Do Public Expenditure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty Matter to Private Investment? Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 145-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:46:y:2007:i:2:p:145-161
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad, Imtiaz & Qayyum, Abdul, 2008. "Effect of Government Spending and Macro-Economic Uncertainty on Private Investment in Services Sector: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 11673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2014. "Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1361-1387, May.
    3. Matthew McCartney, 2018. "The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): Considering Contemporary Pakistan through Old-Fashioned Economics and Historical Case Studies," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 19-48, July-Dec.
    4. Nilofer, Nilofer & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Growth in Pakistan: The ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 86961, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    5. Ahmad, Imtiaz & Qayyum, Abdul, 2009. "Role of Public Expenditures and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Determining Private Investment in Large Scale Manufacturing Sector of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 29268, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Akçay Selçuk & Karasoy Alper, 2020. "Determinants of private investments in Turkey: Examining the role of democracy," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 23-49, March.
    7. Matthew McCartney, 2015. "The Missing Economic Magic: The Failure of Trade Liberalization and Exchange Rate Devaluation in Pakistan, 1980–2012," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 20(Special E), pages 59-86, September.
    8. Nguyen Van Bon, 2021. "Does FDI inflow crowd in private investment? Empirical evidence for the Southeast region of Vietnam from the panel quantile regression approach," HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE - ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, HO CHI MINH CITY OPEN UNIVERSITY, vol. 11(2), pages 127-136.
    9. Van Bon Nguyen, 2023. "The Relationship between Public Expenditure and Private Investment in Developed and Developing Economies: Policy Implications Based on the Difference," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 244(1), pages 37-55, March.
    10. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, September.
    11. Muhammad Asif & Amjad Amin & Naila Nazir & Kashif Saeed & Sajjad Jan, 2022. "Role of tariffs, imports substitution and investment efficiency in economic growth of Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2215-2232, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private Investment; Public Expenditure; Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Co-integration; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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