IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v11y2024i1d10.1057_s41599-024-04352-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measurement and prediction of the development level of China’s digital economy

Author

Listed:
  • Shuangyang Lai

    (Hangzhou Dianzi University)

  • Haoming Chen

    (Hangzhou Dianzi University)

  • Yuexu Zhao

    (Hangzhou Dianzi University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the development level of the digital economy of China. Firstly, an indicator system of the digital economy is constructed from five aspects: digital infrastructure construction, digitalization level of society, growth of the economy promoted by Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), development level of digital economy industries, and capitalization level of digital economy enterprises. Secondly, we use Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence and time-difference correlation coefficient to classify the indicators, and construct a prosperity index. Thirdly, this paper establishes Grey-Markov model combining grey system and Markov chain, further uses this model to predict the development level of digital economy. The empirical analysis shows the Grey-Markov model is superior to grey prediction model in capturing random fluctuations, and Monte Carlo simulation indicates that this model has good robustness. It finds that the gradual deceleration of development will make digital economy close to the relatively stagnant period, although its development level remains stable in the next two years. This research will provide theoretical basis of decisions for government departments, and offer strategic support of the digital transformation for enterprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuangyang Lai & Haoming Chen & Yuexu Zhao, 2024. "Measurement and prediction of the development level of China’s digital economy," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-04352-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-024-04352-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-024-04352-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-024-04352-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuexu Zhao & Weiqi Xu, 2023. "Measurement of risk spillover effect based on EV-Copula method," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Alwosheel, Ahmad & van Cranenburgh, Sander & Chorus, Caspar G., 2018. "Is your dataset big enough? Sample size requirements when using artificial neural networks for discrete choice analysis," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 167-182.
    3. Wei Zhang & Siqi Zhao & Xiaoyu Wan & Yuan Yao, 2021. "Study on the effect of digital economy on high-quality economic development in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-27, September.
    4. Wen Chen & Ying Wu, 2022. "Does intellectual property protection stimulate digital economy development?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 723-730, December.
    5. Alex Minne & Marc Francke & David Geltner & Robert White, 2020. "Using Revisions as a Measure of Price Index Quality in Repeat-Sales Models," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 514-553, May.
    6. Qin, Meng & Mirza, Nawazish & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Exploring Bubbles in the Digital Economy: The Case of China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Li, Zheng-Zheng & Su, Chi-Wei & Chang, Tsangyao & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2022. "Policy-driven or market-driven? Evidence from steam coal price bubbles in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Rita Yi Man Li & Herru Ching Yu Li, 2018. "Have Housing Prices Gone with the Smelly Wind? Big Data Analysis on Landfill in Hong Kong," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-19, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Haoying Wang & Guohui Wu, 2022. "Modeling discrete choices with large fine-scale spatial data: opportunities and challenges," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 325-351, July.
    3. Zhao, Qian & Wang, Lu & Stan, Sebastian-Emanuel & Mirza, Nawazish, 2024. "Can artificial intelligence help accelerate the transition to renewable energy?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Ester Vasta & Tommaso Scimone & Giovanni Nobile & Otto Eberhardt & Daniele Dugo & Massimiliano Maurizio De Benedetti & Luigi Lanuzza & Giuseppe Scarcella & Luca Patanè & Paolo Arena & Mario Cacciato, 2023. "Models for Battery Health Assessment: A Comparative Evaluation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-34, January.
    5. Feng, Wei & Sun, Shujun & Yuan, Hang, 2023. "Research on the efficiency of factor allocation in the pilot free trade zones," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 727-745.
    6. Fu, Shuke & Ge, Yingchen & Hao, Yu & Peng, Jiachao & Tian, Jiali, 2024. "Energy supply chain efficiency in the digital era: Evidence from China's listed companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Vyacheslav Makedon & Nataliya Krasnikova & Oleksandr Krupskyi & Yuliia Stasiuk, 2022. "Arrangement of Digital Leadership Strategy by Corporate Structures: A Review," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 8, pages 19-40.
    8. Raul-Tomas Mora-Garcia & Maria-Francisca Cespedes-Lopez & V. Raul Perez-Sanchez & Pablo Marti & Juan-Carlos Perez-Sanchez, 2019. "Determinants of the Price of Housing in the Province of Alicante (Spain): Analysis Using Quantile Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-33, January.
    9. Wen Chen & Changyi Zhu & Qi Cheung & Siying Wu & Jun Zhang & Jia Cao, 2024. "How does digitization enable green innovation? Evidence from Chinese listed companies," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 3832-3854, July.
    10. Festus Victor Bekun & Abdulkareem Alhassan & Ilhan Ozturk & Obadiah Jonathan Gimba, 2022. "Explosivity and Time-Varying Granger Causality: Evidence from the Bubble Contagion Effect of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty on Manufacturing Job Postings in the United States," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-17, December.
    11. Wang, Zuyi & Kim, Man-Keun, 2022. "Price bubbles in oil & gas markets and their transfer," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Ran Xu & Yeong-Gil Kim & Chenglei Liang, 2024. "The Effect of Digitization on Economic Sustainable Growth in Shandong Province of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-21, August.
    13. Wang, Weilong & Wang, Jianlong & Wu, Haitao, 2024. "The impact of energy-consuming rights trading on green total factor productivity in the context of digital economy: Evidence from listed firms in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Wang, Xiaolei & Deng, Renxin & Yang, Yufang, 2023. "The spatiotemporal effect of factor price distortion on capacity utilization in China’s iron and steel industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    15. Chunyan He & Ding Li & Qiong Ma & Daichun Yi, 2022. "City Bias: Affordable Housing Accessibility Assessment—Evidence From 153 Prefectural Cities in China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, December.
    16. Jiao, Jianling & Song, Jiangfeng & Ding, Tao, 2024. "The impact of synergistic development of renewable energy and digital economy on energy intensity: Evidence from 33 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    17. Fengge Yao & Ying Song & Xiaomei Wang, 2023. "How the Digital Economy Empowers the Structural Upgrading of Cultural Industries—An Analysis Based on the Spatial Durbin Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, October.
    18. Wei Su, Chi & Yue Song, Xin & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "Optimistic or pessimistic: How do investors impact the green bond market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Guoge Yang & Feng Deng & Yifei Wang & Xianhong Xiang, 2022. "Digital Paradox: Platform Economy and High-Quality Economic Development—New Evidence from Provincial Panel Data in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-26, February.
    20. Marc Francke & Alex Van De Minne, 2022. "Daily appraisal of commercial real estate a new mixed frequency approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1257-1281, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:11:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-024-04352-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.