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Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries with a Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange: A Formal Framework


  • Pierre-Richard Agénor

    (International Monetary Fund)


A model is developed incorporating trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Fully anticipated, expansionary credit and fiscal policies are associated with output and price increases, a fall in the stock of net foreign assets, and a depreciation of the parallel exchange rate. Speed of adjustment is inversely related to the degree of rationing in the official foreign exchange market. A once-for-all devaluation of the official rate has a negative effect on the parallel market premium in the short term, but none in the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1990. "Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries with a Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange: A Formal Framework," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 560-592, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:37:y:1990:i:3:p:560-592

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David T. Coe, 1990. "Structural Determinants of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Canada," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(1), pages 94-115, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lopez-Calix, Jose R., 1998. "Are Pick data on parallel exchange rates misleading?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 223-230, May.
    2. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
    3. Alberto Giovannini & Bart Turtelboom, 1992. "Currency Substitution," NBER Working Papers 4232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Amit Biswas & Sugata Marjit, 2005. "Mis-invoicing and Trade Policy," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 189-205.

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