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Is Predicting Recessions Enough?

Author

Listed:
  • Azhar Iqbal

    (Wells Farge Securities)

  • John Silvia

    (Wells Farge Securities)

Abstract

We propose an ordered probit framework to simultaneously predict the probabilities of recession, weaker recovery, and stronger recovery. Our approach helps identify (a) whether the next phase is a recession, (b) when the recovery period starts, and (c) whether the recovery would be a weak or strong one compared to historical standards. We believe our approach would help policy makers decide when would be appropriate to (1) start expansionary policies (higher probabilities of recession), (2) continue expansionary policies (higher probabilities of weaker recovery), or (3) turn to neutral/contractionary policies (higher probabilities of stronger recovery). The ordered probit model shows the probabilities of recession staying above 50 percent during all five recessions in our simulated out-of-sample analysis of 1980:Q1–2016:Q1. The probabilities of weaker recovery are consistent with actual periods of below trend growth. Based on 2016:Q1 data, the model suggests a meaningfully higher chance of continuing below trend growth. One key result is that the probability of weaker growth has been persistently higher than the other two scenarios for the past several years. These higher probabilities of weak growth are consistent with the accommodative monetary policy stance of the past eight years.

Suggested Citation

  • Azhar Iqbal & John Silvia, 2016. "Is Predicting Recessions Enough?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 248-259, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:51:y:2016:i:4:d:10.1057_s11369-016-0017-x
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0017-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June.
    2. John Silvia & Azhar Iqbal, 2015. "An Ordered Probit Approach to Predicting the Probability of Inflation/Deflation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 12-19, January.
    3. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark Vitner & Azhar Iqbal, 2019. "What is going right in manufacturing?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 114-121, April.
    2. Gjerde, Kathy Paulson & Prescott, Peter & Rice, Jennifer, 2019. "The Impact of State Fiscal Policy on States' Resilience Entering the Great Recession," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 49(1), January.
    3. Prescott, Peter & Gjerde, Kathy Paulson, 2022. "The Impact of State Fiscal Policy on States’ Resilience During the Great Recession," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 52(1), January.

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