IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/buseco/v50y2015i1p12-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Ordered Probit Approach to Predicting the Probability of Inflation/Deflation

Author

Listed:
  • John Silvia
  • Azhar Iqbal

Abstract

This paper provides an ordered probit approach that estimates the probability six months in the future of three distinct scenarios for prices: inflation, deflation, or price stability. The traditional way of forecasting inflation is to predict a single level and/or growth rate of the PCE deflator. However, this approach is not useful for identifying options or risks facing decision-makers, especially in financial markets. Also, point estimates of inflation convey a sense of overconfidence. Our approach is more practical for decision-makers who must hedge their portfolios, but it is also useful for policymakers, investors, and consumers who must attach a probability with each possible scenario of future price trends. Our results indicate that since June 2011 the probability of deflation has been persistently higher than of the other two scenarios. Thus, the recent years’ higher deflation probabilities may offer a justification for the persistence of the Federal Reserve’s highly accommodative monetary policy during 2012–14.

Suggested Citation

  • John Silvia & Azhar Iqbal, 2015. "An Ordered Probit Approach to Predicting the Probability of Inflation/Deflation," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 50(1), pages 12-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:50:y:2015:i:1:p:12-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v50/n1/pdf/be20151a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v50/n1/full/be20151a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sam Bullard & Azhar Iqbal & John Silvia, 2016. "A New Framework to Estimate the Near-Term Path of the Fed Funds Rate," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 239-247, October.
    2. Azhar Iqbal & John Silvia, 2016. "Is Predicting Recessions Enough?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 248-259, October.
    3. Azhar Iqbal & John E. Silvia, 2016. "Does Deflation Threaten the Global Economy?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, June.
    4. Azhar Iqbal & John E. Silvia, 2016. "Does Deflation Threaten the Global Economy?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:50:y:2015:i:1:p:12-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.