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The Link Between Gasoline Prices and Vehicle Sales

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  • Walter McManus

Abstract

This paper examines the link between fuel prices and sales of cars and trucks. U.S. automakers have long denied that such a link exists. One source of this false belief is an obsession with the crude count of units sold, equating Hummers with Minis. Another source is the conventional “wisdom” that Americans are unwilling to pay for fuel economy. The paper presents theoretical reasons and market evidence that refute Detroit's conventional wisdom. American manufacturers' reaction to rising fuel prices over the last few years revealed the shortcomings of the U.S. automakers' recent product and powertrain strategies. The effect of rising fuel prices has, in effect, been offset by reducing prices of vehicles in inverse proportion to fuel economy. Thus, unit sales of large SUVs could be maintained, but their revenue (and profit) fell because vehicle prices were cut, directly or indirectly. The paper concludes with a few practical guidelines that business economists should use to prevent their companies from experiencing the recent massive losses experienced by the U.S. automobile industry.Business Economics (2007) 42, 53–60; doi:10.2145/20070106

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  • Walter McManus, 2007. "The Link Between Gasoline Prices and Vehicle Sales," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 53-60, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:42:y:2007:i:1:p:53-60
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Greene, David & Hossain, Anushah & Hofmann, Julia & Helfand, Gloria & Beach, Robert, 2018. "Consumer willingness to pay for vehicle attributes: What do we Know?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 258-279.
    2. Tsvetanov, Tsvetan & Segerson, Kathleen, 2013. "Re-evaluating the role of energy efficiency standards: A behavioral economics approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 347-363.
    3. Martin, Elliott William, 2009. "New Vehicle Choice, Fuel Economy and Vehicle Incentives: An Analysis of Hybrid Tax Credits and the Gasoline Tax," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5gd206wv, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. Frankel, David M., 2015. "Insuring Customers of a Unionized Firm Against Loss of Network Benefits," Staff General Research Papers Archive 38580, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Martin, Elliot William, 2009. "New Vehicle Choices, Fuel Economy and Vehicle Incentives: An Analysis of Hybrid Tax Credits and Gasoline Tax," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt6sz198c2, University of California Transportation Center.
    6. Kleinbaum, Rob & McManus, Walter, 2009. "Fixing Detroit: how far, how fast, how fuel-efficient," MPRA Paper 19607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Shigeru Matsumoto, 2018. "Consumer valuation of energy-saving features of residential air conditioners with hedonic and choice models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1779-1806, December.
    8. Sa-ngasoongsong, Akkarapol & Bukkapatnam, Satish T.S. & Kim, Jaebeom & Iyer, Parameshwaran S. & Suresh, R.P., 2012. "Multi-step sales forecasting in automotive industry based on structural relationship identification," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 875-887.
    9. MATSUMOTO Shigeru & OMATA Yukiko, 2015. "Consumer Valuations of Energy Efficiency Investments: The case of Vietnam's air conditioner market," Discussion papers 15063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Frankel, David M., 2014. "Optimal Insurance for Small Stakeholders," Staff General Research Papers Archive 37551, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Baur, Dirk G. & Todorova, Neda, 2018. "Automobile manufacturers, electric vehicles and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 252-262.
    12. Tsvetanov, Tsvetan & Segerson, Kathleen, 2011. "Re-Evaluating the Role of Energy Efficiency Standards: A Time-Consistent Behavioral Economics Approach," Working Paper series 148295, University of Connecticut, Charles J. Zwick Center for Food and Resource Policy.
    13. Chen, Anning, 2011. "Reliable GPS Integer Ambiguity Resolution," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt9gs0t2f9, University of California Transportation Center.
    14. Daziano, Ricardo A., 2015. "Inference on mode preferences, vehicle purchases, and the energy paradox using a Bayesian structural choice model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-26.
    15. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Milioti, Christina & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Modeling the dynamic response of automobile sales in troubled times: A real-time Vector Autoregressive analysis with causality testing for Greece," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 75-81.
    16. Eric Kateta Tshiakambila & Joseph Chisasa, 2017. "Food Inflation and Passenger Vehicle Purchases in South Africa: Cointegration, Short Run Dynamics and Causality," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(5), pages 122-134.
    17. McManus, Walter, 2007. "Economic analysis of feebates to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from light vehicles for California," MPRA Paper 3461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Cumhur Erdem & Saban Nazlioglu, 2013. "Determinants of new vehicle registrations in EU countries: a panel cointegration analysis," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 287-298, April.

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