IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/buseco/v41y2006i1p7-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential Growth of the U.S. Economy: Will the Productivity Resurgence Continue?

Author

Listed:
  • Dale W Jorgenson

    (Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA.)

  • Mun S Ho

    (Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA.)

  • Kevin J Stiroh

    (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, NY, 10045, USA.)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. productivity growth through 2004 and presents medium-term projections for the U.S. economy. We attribute a substantial portion of productivity gains over the past decade to production and use of information technology equipment and software. In the most recent years, we also identify a growing contribution from sources outside the technology-producing sectors. Our base-case projection for the GDP growth rate is almost exactly three percent. We emphasize the substantial range of uncertainty by presenting an optimistic projection of 3.5 percent and a pessimistic projection of only 1.9 percent.Business Economics (2006) 41, 7–16; doi:10.2145/20060101

Suggested Citation

  • Dale W Jorgenson & Mun S Ho & Kevin J Stiroh, 2006. "Potential Growth of the U.S. Economy: Will the Productivity Resurgence Continue?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 41(1), pages 7-16, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:41:y:2006:i:1:p:7-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v41/n1/pdf/be20061a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v41/n1/full/be20061a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dostie Benoit & Jayaraman Rajshri, 2012. "Organizational Redesign, Information Technologies and Workplace Productivity," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-41, February.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    3. Gilbert Cette & Aurélien Devillard & Vincenzo Spiezia, 2022. "Growth Factors in Developed Countries: A 1960–2019 Growth Accounting Decomposition," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 159-185, June.
    4. Georges Daw, 2022. "Determinants of Wealth Disparities in the EU: A Multi-scale Development Accounting Investigation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 211-254, June.
    5. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    6. Marianna Epicoco, 2021. "Technological Revolutions and Economic Development : Endogenous and Exogenous Fluctuations," Post-Print hal-03588838, HAL.
    7. Victor Ajai & Karim Anaya & Geoffroy Dolphin & Michael Pollitt, 2022. "Do climate policies explain the productivity puzzle? Evidence from the Energy Sector," Working Papers 016, The Productivity Institute.
    8. Vu, Khuong & Amann, Juergen, 2024. "An analysis of ICT hardware manufacturing in industrialized economies: Growth patterns, productivity performance, and driving Forces," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).
    9. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    10. Georges Daw, 2024. "Impact of technical change via intermediate consumption: exhaustive general equilibrium growth accounting and reassessment applied to USA 1954–1990," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(1), pages 55-87, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:41:y:2006:i:1:p:7-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.