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The Decline of Seasonality in Australian Quarterly Aggregate Strike Statistics: 1983-2003

  • L.J. Perry

    ()

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Patrick J. Wilson

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

This paper investigates the changing pattern of seasonal influences on quarterly Australian data on aggregate working days lost due to industrial disputes per thousand employees for the period 1983:1 to 2004:3. The analysis suggests the presence of (a) a structural break in the stationarity properties of the data around 1992-93 and (b) the presence of seasonality in the data, though this appears to be largely confined to the pre-1993 period. It is noted that the break in the stationarity and change in seasonality properties of the data corresponds approximately with the period between the introduction of enterprise bargaining in the Australian Industrial Relations Commission in late 1991 and the introduction of the Industrial Relations Reform Act 1993, which was enacted in early 1994. It is suggested that these and other legislative and socio-economic changes that ushered in the progressive abandonment of centralised wage-fixing practices, may have contributed to the near elimination of seasonality in aggregate quarterly strike statistics during the latter part of the period under review.

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Article provided by Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School in its journal Australian Journal of Labour Economics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 43-71

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Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:1:p:43-71
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://business.curtin.edu.au/research/publications/journals/ajle/Email:


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  1. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  2. Perry, L.J. & Wilson, P.J., 2001. "The Accord and Strikes: An International Perspective," Economics Working Papers wp01-03, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
  4. Praetz, Peter D, 1979. "Testing for a Flat Spectrum on Efficient Market Price Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 645-58, June.
  5. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
  6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  7. R. F. Engle, 1972. "Band Spectrum Regressions," Working papers 96, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  8. Mark Wooden, 2001. "Industrial Relations Reform in Australia: Causes, Consequences and Prospects," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 34(3), pages 243-262.
  9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  10. Briggs, C, 2004. "The Return of the Lockout in Australia: a Profile of Lockouts since the Decentralisation of Bargaining," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 101-112.
  11. Patrick J. Wilson & L.J. Perry, 2004. "Forecasting Australian Unemployment Rates using Spectral Analysis," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(4), pages 459-480, December.
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