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The Decline of Seasonality in Australian Quarterly Aggregate Strike Statistics: 1983-2003

Author

Listed:
  • L.J. Perry

    () (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Patrick J. Wilson

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

Abstract

This paper investigates the changing pattern of seasonal influences on quarterly Australian data on aggregate working days lost due to industrial disputes per thousand employees for the period 1983:1 to 2004:3. The analysis suggests the presence of (a) a structural break in the stationarity properties of the data around 1992-93 and (b) the presence of seasonality in the data, though this appears to be largely confined to the pre-1993 period. It is noted that the break in the stationarity and change in seasonality properties of the data corresponds approximately with the period between the introduction of enterprise bargaining in the Australian Industrial Relations Commission in late 1991 and the introduction of the Industrial Relations Reform Act 1993, which was enacted in early 1994. It is suggested that these and other legislative and socio-economic changes that ushered in the progressive abandonment of centralised wage-fixing practices, may have contributed to the near elimination of seasonality in aggregate quarterly strike statistics during the latter part of the period under review.

Suggested Citation

  • L.J. Perry & Patrick J. Wilson, 2005. "The Decline of Seasonality in Australian Quarterly Aggregate Strike Statistics: 1983-2003," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 43-71, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:8:y:2005:i:1:p:43-71
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick J. Wilson & L.J. Perry, 2004. "Forecasting Australian Unemployment Rates using Spectral Analysis," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(4), pages 459-480, December.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    4. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    5. Engle, Robert F, 1974. "Band Spectrum Regression," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, February.
    6. Briggs, C, 2004. "The Return of the Lockout in Australia: a Profile of Lockouts since the Decentralisation of Bargaining," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 101-112.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    8. Praetz, Peter D, 1979. "Testing for a Flat Spectrum on Efficient Market Price Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 645-658, June.
    9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    10. L.J. Perry & Patrick J. Wilson, 2000. "The Accord and strikes: an International perspective," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 4(4), pages 232-247, December.
    11. Mark Wooden, 2001. "Industrial Relations Reform in Australia: Causes, Consequences and Prospects," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 34(3), pages 243-262.
    12. Healy, Joshua Gregory, 2002. "Peace at last? Recent trends in Australia's industrial action," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies, vol. 28(2), pages 80-87.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dispute Resolution: Strikes; Arbitration; and Mediation; Collective Bargaining; Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables; Time-Series Models;

    JEL classification:

    • J52 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - Dispute Resolution: Strikes, Arbitration, and Mediation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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